Inflation-hit consumers yet to shake sour outlook

Consumers remain down in the dumps as the cost of living crunch and higher interest rates keep the mood low.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan weekly measure of consumer confidence lifted by a modest 0.1 points after four weeks of consecutive declines.

Despite the minor improvement, the headline figure at 76.6  points was still below 80 for the fourth week in a row and well below long-run averages.

ANZ senior economist Adelaide Timbrell said confidence among those paying off a mortgage jumped 2.9 points, partially unwinding the 4.3 points fall the week before.

"Confidence among renters and outright homeowners declined 0.5 points and 1.8 points respectively after increases last week," she said.

"The index, in six of the past seven weeks, was among the 12 worst results since the COVID outbreak."

The confidence subindices were mixed - the 'time to buy a major household item' gauge lifted 2.9 points and the 'current' and 'future' financial conditions recorded modest gains.

Both 'current' and 'future' economic indicators declined.

Conditions for small businesses are also looking less favourable.

Human resources platform Employment Hero recorded a 0.1 per cent decline in average employment growth for small and medium-sized businesses in February.

Median hourly wages also sunk 1.5 per cent, leaving employees working for small and medium-sized businesses at $35.43 an hour.

Employment Hero chief executive Ben Thompson said it would be premature to call a slowdown but the soft results could signal the beginnings of a downward trend. 

"Small and medium-sized enterprises across various industries saw a decline in employment growth and median hourly wages, with larger enterprises experiencing the biggest decrease."

Median wages dropped across almost every industry in February after stagnating in November and December and increasing in January.

"The decline in wages could be due to a decrease in consumer demand, resulting in fewer work hours and reduced overtime and penalty rates," he said.

Official retail trade data, due to be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday, will shed more light on consumer spending patterns.

NAB economists expect the goods-heavy indicator to remain flat over the month as high inflation and rising interest rates leave consumers with less to spend. 

The Reserve Bank signposted retail figures as one of the key pieces of data to digest ahead of its April interest rate decision, with the impact of interest rate hikes on spending still a major source of uncertainty for the central bank.