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Summary
- US election was held on 3 November and the polls have now begun to end could have an impact on Kiwis in different ways.
- If Trump gets re-elected, his trade decisions could hurt WTO and could have a direct effect on the national interest of NZ as he continues to demolish the rules-based system.
- However, if Biden wins, there would be lesser problems as NZ would find a partner who is much closer to support multilateralism and Biden administration could alter the US perspective for international institutions.
The destiny of the President of US hung in balance on 3 November as Democratic challenger Joe Biden and President Donald Trump continues to fight a close race in battleground states to win the White House.
US election workers are still tabulating votes and determining winners as more than 100 million Americans have casted early votes either using mail-in ballots or using early voting days.
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As on 4 November, there were still 7 states in the US left undecided for Presidency, but why should Kiwis pay heed to the election result remains a question to be answered.
Let's have a look at how the US elections could affect New Zealanders.
NZ exports, one of the country's biggest industries, could be impacted by the candidate that wins the White House. As per the Ministry for Primary Industries, NZ's primary industries generate NZ$42 billion in a year in exports.
US is a big player in NZ exports. NZ exported meat and edible offal worth NZ$1.58 billion to the US in the year to June, according to Stats NZ data.
Impact on NZ if Trump wins a second term
The US is still struggling to contain coronavirus under Trump Presidency, which could significantly affect trade policies, tourism, and fluctuations in share market.
Robert Patman, University of Otago Professor of International Relations, stated that Trump is an opponent of multilateral institutions like WTO and witnesses them as a constraint in the US power.
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He added that if Trump gets re-elected, his trade decisions could hurt WTO even more and result in smaller countries bending to its will when any dispute comes up.
For example, Farmers could bear the brunt of the impact if there are disagreements about New Zealand's agricultural exports that end up favouring the US.
Mr Patman stated that due to Trump's persistence in demolishing the rule-based system, he could directly impact NZ interest if he gets re-elected.
NZ could gain under Biden administration
A more conventional presidency could be expected under Joe Biden's rule, as per NZ diplomat and trade deal negotiator Charles Finny. He stated that Biden could lead with more predictability and less disruption for NZ, but there is still a lot of uncertainty.
Market experts say that a Biden administration could change the US perspective towards international institutions and NZ will get US support on multilateralism.
Mr Patman further stated that if Biden wins there would be fewer problems from NZ’s perspective, as former US President Barack Obama and former NZ PM John Key had a good relationship. Mr Obama utilised WTO's dispute resolution service about 25 times while he was in office.
