Summary

• It is the end of September and travel ban restrictions are still intact, leaving about 200,000 international students stranded offshore and threatening a A$40 billion Australian education sector.
• 232,000 dwellings could be reduced by 2023, due to international students not being allowed to come and study in Australia.
• NHFIC stated that the best-case scenario for the property market would be, if the borders open by next year, and that will leave “only” 129,000 less demands for properties.

Australia was among those countries that implemented the strictest lockdown measures as a public health response. Unlike almost anywhere else in the world, many restrictions are still in place across Australia.

Most restrictions apply to tourism and travel, which greatly affected one of Australia’s biggest GDP bearers – tertiary education.

When travel ban got introduced earlier in March this year, all inbound and outbound travel became restricted, excluding immediate family members of Australian citizens.

Immediate members would need to apply for a travel exemption, but their chances of getting one were, and still are, very low.

Must read: What’s Happening Inside Australian Travel Industry?

What impact did travel ban for international students have?

Even after paying high student fees, signing property leases, international students were excluded from being able to travel to Australia.

Apart from the missed opportunity and money that students lost, property market in Australia could face the consequences in the unforeseeable future.

Also read: Subject of Debate: Is Australian Property Market Recession Proof?

Real estate and other heavily impacted industries were shown some of the future expectations made by the Australian Government on Monday, September 21, 2020.

It is believed that the current travel ban could reduce up to 232,000 accommodation places that would normally be taken by international students. That estimation was brought by the National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation (NHFIC), a federal government body, and is considered to happen in the next three years.

Almost six out of ten people living in Australia are migrants, with almost half of them being international students. With implemented travel bans that do not seem to be lifted any time soon, it is estimated that there will be a 0.8% drop in the population living in Australia over the next two years.

However, the provided numbers are only a forecast and can change any time. After taking the best-case scenario into consideration, NHFIC stated that there would be 129,000 less demands for property leases. The positive outcome will only take place if the borders open by next year.

Read about the pre-pandemic situation: Australian Property Market Observed a Surge in Loan Commitments in November

A historical example during Global Financial Crisis (GFC) showed that the situation for international students was worse because of high unemployment and exchange rates.

The similar phenomenon seems to be reoccurring, with the biggest international student markets from India in Brazil being impacted the hardest, as those countries are experiencing the worst coronavirus impacts.

When will the travel ban get lifted?

There seems to be no plan for lifting travel restrictions, apart from letting international students in the country by Christmas time.

The Australian Government is under immense pressure to allow some students to come to the country, especially after the UK considered bringing the Chinese students to its universities.

The plan to bring the students to Adelaide was thought to be confirmed by the end of September, but the final decision had still not been discussed. Not only did international students suffered the federal government’s decision, but so did 24,000 stranded Australians overseas that did not get travel exemptions.

South Australian MP Steven Marshall has expressed his wish for opening the borders for maximum 300 students at a time.

More than 200,000 students that have already enrolled in the Australian tertiary system have still not been given a green light for entering Australia, as only 40 international students secured grants to come in July this year. If these restrictions keep being in place, Australian international education A$40 billion sector would be in serious jeopardy for many years to come.

Education in Australia

When it comes to education, Australia made a huge business out of international students, charging them enormous amounts for student fees. In fact, they are higher more than double in price than for the Australian citizens.

That said, it is likely to assume that the Australian recession was greatly stimulated by limiting international students to arrive in the country down under (Australia and New Zealand).

Also read: Anticipated drop in international students likely to hit Australian universities

In the most recent research held in 2018, it was estimated that tertiary education stimulates A$33.9 billion to the economy, making it the third largest Australian export.

About 693,750 international enrolments were recorded that year, out of 876,399 in total. Students from China (205,189), India (89,750) and Nepal (43,021) were top three international sources that decided to get their university qualification within Australian borders.