Carbon Dioxide Emissions off the cliff in 2020, Coronavirus the Climate Change hero!

Summary

• An international team of researchers have found that 8.8% less carbon dioxide was emitted during the first six months of 2020 as compared to the same period in 2019.
• Ground transportation sector recorded the maximum decline in emissions as people worked from home.
• The study, though, says that by July 2020, when the lockdown was lifted, almost all major economies resumed their usual levels of carbon dioxide emissions.

‘Stay home, stay safe’ slogan has become part of our lives now. Little did anyone know that staying indoors would do something to the climate that was always desired but was never anticipated.  An international team of climate specialists, also comprising of Earth system scientists at the University of California, Irvine, has issued an assessment paper featuring carbon dioxide levels in the air from January to June, declaring that the lockdowns during the pandemic have caused a steep decline from the levels of 2019.

The team of researchers found 8.8% less carbon dioxide was emitted in the first six months of 2020. That accounts for a dip of 1551 million metric tons, the largest reduction in emissions in recent modern history over the first half of the year.  The study also revealed that the most substantial drop in emissions was recorded in the ground transportation sector because most of the people worked from home. Ground transportation emissions plummeted by 19.2% while, pollution from aviation fell by 37.4%.

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Image Source: © Kalkine Group 2020

The researchers said that despite the fact that lockdowns were reducing across the globe towards the end of the spring, transportation emissions in June were still recorded 16% less indicating that people and their ‘lockdown’ habits remained the same.

But, despite the lockdowns in the pandemic, people continued to consume electricity. And therefore, carbon emissions from the power and energy sector declined only 6%. On the other hand, industry-related carbon pollution slipped by 6.5%.

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The same study, however, said that by the time the month of July arrived, when most of the lockdown actions were lifted, most of the countries returned to their previous typical levels of CO2 emissions.

US experienced maximum fall in CO2 emissions

On the basis of regions, the biggest fall happened in the US, which was enveloped by 530 metric tons of CO2 during the assessment period, a 13% dip. In China, emissions fell by 227 metric tons or 5.4%. In India, the third most Corona-hit country, the decline was nearly 16%, with 177 metric tons of emission.

The Coronavirus that nearly infected 40 million people, was, to a great extent, taken into control through a series of lockdowns.

Researchers took into account a few elements like electricity power production in 31 countries, daily motor traffic in more than 400 cities, passenger flights and fuel consumption. The decline in CO2 levels came out to be larger than what was witnessed during the last 2008-2009 global economic meltdown and during World War 2.    

According to the Department of Earth System Science in Beijing, in 2020, in the month of April, when Corona was at its peak, when most of the important countries were locked, and world economy was crushing, emissions even declined by 16.9%. The organisation further stated that overall, the different and frequent outbursts of the disease resulted in drops in the emission. This type of behaviour is usually seen on a short-term basis on long holidays like Christmas.

Another facet that the study revealed is that emissions in the US and Europe have been slower to improve, particularly in the US. Here, the hot spots persisted throughout the summer.

Meanwhile, as per a projection report by International Energy Agency, the level of carbon dioxide emissions is estimated to rise post the pandemic, but it is also projected that the emission level might not exceed 2019 stage until 2027.  

The International Energy Agency (IEA) which regularly promotes a ‘sustainable energy future’ has projected a 7% decline in energy-related carbon dioxide pollution in 2020 amid a cutback in the usage of fossil fuel.

The study forecast a drop in annual CO2 emissions to where they were ten years ago. Though, the case is not same with methane, a more formidable greenhouse gas.    

Future Outlook

According to IEA model, the world economy will return to its pre-covid 19 level in the year 2021. The energy demand will return by early 2023. But the CO2 emissions would not exceed 2019 levels until the year 2027. As per the model, energy demand will be recovering quicker than the rate of emissions because renewable sources of energy will contribute to a larger share of the market. Also, the usage of resources like coal and wood would drop.

According to the report, in the year 2020, energy demand will plunge by 5% and energy investment will drop by 18%.

In particular, the demand for oil is anticipated to decline by 8% and similarly, the usage of coal is expected to drop by 7%. Also, demand for natural gas is expected to go down by 3%.

The study suggests that decisions taken during the period of next decade will be playing a crucial part in shaping the route to attain net-zero emissions by 2050.

Conclusion

As a society, we need proper structural and transformational changes in processes like power and energy production and consumption systems. Also, individual behaviour is important. Besides, the entire human race truly needs to concentrate on lowering the intensity of carbon in the atmosphere.