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ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) has garnered significant attention over the past year, with its shares rising by 23.39%, outpacing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX:XJO), which recorded a comparatively modest 6.54% increase. As investors look ahead, many are curious about ANZ's potential performance in FY25, considering its strong trajectory.
Unlike many companies, ANZ's financial year concludes in September, influencing both FY24 and FY25 outlooks. The economic landscape has evolved notably since three years ago, marked by the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate, which has risen to 4.35%, impacting future projections.
Recently, ANZ disclosed its FY24 first-half results, reporting a cash net profit of AU$3.55 billion, down 1% from the FY23 second half, alongside a statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) of AU$3.4 billion, a 4% decline from the same period. ANZ CEO Shayne Elliott characterised these results as "strong," attributing them to the bank's disciplined focus on productivity and operational efficiency.
Key to ANZ's strategy is its digital platform, ANZ Plus, which has seen substantial growth, serving nearly 690,000 customers with nearly AU$14 billion in deposits by April's end. The platform boasts a high net promoter score (customer satisfaction metric), consistently surpassing industry peers and attracting approximately 35,000 new customers monthly.
Efforts to enhance efficiency have yielded significant savings, with ANZ unlocking AU$200 million through streamlined processes, particularly in home loan applications and technology simplification. Despite economic challenges, Elliott noted the resilience of most borrowers, although many face heightened cost-of-living pressures.
In terms of loan performance, ANZ reported a slight increase in home loans overdue by at least 90 days compared to previous years, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainties.
Looking forward, Elliott emphasised a cautious outlook for both the Australian and New Zealand economies, foreseeing persistent challenges amid geopolitical tensions and global policy shifts. However, he expressed confidence in ANZ's diversified business model and robust customer base, positioning the bank favourably in navigating these complexities.
Financial analysts, including UBS, have forecasted ANZ's net profit to reach AU$7 billion in FY24, with expectations rising to AU$7.3 billion in FY25, indicating a potential 4.4% year-over-year increase. UBS also anticipates ANZ shares to yield a dividend of nearly 6% in FY25, excluding franking credits, with a price target of AU$30 over the next 12 months.
