Macquarie Analysts Predict Diminishing Mortgage-Related Headwinds for Australian Banks - Kalkine Media

December 01, 2023 04:39 PM AEDT | By Team Kalkine Media
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Recent analysis from Macquarie forecasts a positive shift for Australian banks in fiscal 2024, with expectations of reduced challenges stemming from mortgage-related factors. This analysis sheds light on the potential trajectory of the banking sector, impacting market sentiment.

Macquarie's projections highlight a potential decline in headwinds associated with mortgages, signaling a more favorable environment for Australian banks. This shift could significantly influence the banks' operational and financial performance in the upcoming fiscal year.

Earnings Projections and Sector Appeal

Despite the forecasted decrease in mortgage-related challenges, Macquarie anticipates a decline in bank earnings ranging from 4% to 15% for fiscal 2024. Additionally, the brokerage underscores the limited appeal observed within the banking sector, setting a cautious tone for investors and stakeholders.

Challenging Outlook and Stock Performance

Market expectations align with Macquarie's analysis, indicating an increasingly challenging outlook for Australian banks. This sentiment reflects in the recent stock performance, with shares of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), National Australia Bank (ASX: NAB), ANZ Group (ASX: ANZ), and Westpac (ASX: WBC) experiencing declines between 0.5% and 0.8%. The broader financial index also registered a 0.5% decrease.


Macquarie's analysis suggests a complex landscape for Australian banks in fiscal 2024. Despite expectations of diminishing mortgage-related headwinds, the projected decline in earnings and limited sector appeal present challenges that could influence market dynamics.


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