Will Woolworths shares hit $40 by Christmas? - Kalkine Media

November 27, 2023 07:57 PM AEDT | By Team Kalkine Media
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Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) has faced a challenging period in recent months, witnessing a decline of over 10% in its shares since the end of August. Investors are now contemplating the possibility of a rebound, and the question on everyone's mind is whether Woolworths shares could climb back to the $40.00 mark before the year concludes. 

Predicting Short-Term Movements 

Before delving into the feasibility of Woolworths shares reaching $40.00, it's crucial to acknowledge the inherent difficulty in predicting short-term movements in the stock market. With just four weeks until Christmas, the timeframe is limited, adding to the complexity of making accurate predictions. This challenge is particularly relevant for ASX consumer stocks, where market dynamics can be influenced by various factors during the holiday season. 

A Positive Outlook from Goldman Sachs 

Despite the challenges, there is a positive outlook from Goldman Sachs, which currently holds a conviction buy rating and a $42.40 price target on Woolworths shares. This indicates a belief in the potential for upward movement in the share price. 

Can Woolworths Hit $40 by Christmas? 

Woolworths shares are currently priced at $34.16, requiring a 17% increase to reach the $40.00 target. While the company has experienced periods of 7% to 10% increases in a short timeframe this year, achieving a 17% rise by Christmas might be a challenging endeavor, even under optimal conditions. 

Focus on Long-Term Value 

While the prospect of short-term gains is uncertain, Goldman Sachs emphasizes the long-term investment potential of Woolworths. The firm highlights Woolworths' strong consumer stickiness and loyalty, positioning the company to drive market share gains through its omni-channel advantage. Additionally, the ability to pass through cost inflation to protect margins adds to the appeal. 

Goldman Sachs Commentary 

Goldman Sachs, in its recent commentary, expressed confidence in Woolworths as a high-quality and defensive stock. The business's ability to navigate market challenges and maintain consumer loyalty contributes to its value proposition. The stock is currently trading below its historical average since 2018, presenting what Goldman Sachs considers a value entry level. 

Conclusion: Balancing Short-Term Expectations and Long-Term Potential 

While the $40.00 target by Christmas may be ambitious, Woolworths' long-term value, as endorsed by Goldman Sachs, provides a more robust investment thesis. Investors may find greater stability and returns by focusing on the company's strategic strengths and its resilience in the market. 


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