Why Is the ASX Set to Open Lower as Oil Surges and Miners Face Pressure?

4 min read | July 09, 2026 01:49 PM AEST | By Sam

Highlights

  • ASX futures indicate a weaker opening following mixed overnight trading across major US indices.
  • Rising oil prices may support energy stocks, while softer precious metals and copper prices could weigh on miners.
  • Global markets remain focused on commodities, interest rate expectations and corporate earnings.

Australian shares are expected to begin Thursday's session on a weaker note after mixed performances across Wall Street overnight. Futures point to a softer opening for the ASX 200, with weakness in mining shares likely to offset potential gains among energy companies following a sharp rally in crude oil prices. The changing commodity backdrop has also renewed attention on ASX Energy Stocks as investors assess how higher oil prices and softer metals may influence sector performance throughout the trading session.

Why is the ASX expected to open lower?

ASX futures signalled a modest decline ahead of the opening bell after global markets delivered mixed performances overnight.

Wall Street ended the session without a clear direction as weakness across the broader market contrasted with continued resilience among technology companies.

The softer outlook for Australian equities also reflects changing sentiment across commodity markets, particularly precious metals and industrial metals.

Mining companies may remain under pressure if weaker commodity prices continue influencing investor sentiment.

How did US markets perform overnight?

Major US indices closed mixed.

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both finished lower, while the technology-focused Nasdaq Composite recorded a modest gain.

Technology stocks continued attracting support, helping offset broader weakness across industrial and cyclical sectors.

The mixed performance reflects ongoing uncertainty surrounding global growth expectations, interest rates and commodity markets.

Why are energy stocks attracting attention?

Crude oil recorded one of its strongest daily gains in recent weeks.

Both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude prices advanced sharply, supporting sentiment across the global energy sector.

Higher oil prices may benefit companies involved in:

  • Oil production
  • Natural gas
  • Energy infrastructure
  • Petroleum services
  • Integrated energy operations

Australian energy companies could therefore outperform broader market weakness if elevated oil prices continue.

Why are mining companies under pressure?

While energy markets strengthened, several key commodities traded lower.

Gold, silver and copper all declined during overnight trading, reducing near-term support for mining shares exposed to those commodities.

Commodity producers often respond closely to underlying resource prices, making overnight movements an important influence on the Australian market.

Iron ore remained relatively resilient compared with other metals, offering some support for companies focused on bulk commodities.

Commodity markets delivered mixed signals

Commodity trading reflected varying sector dynamics.

Stronger commodities

  • Crude oil
  • Iron ore
  • Nickel

Softer commodities

  • Gold
  • Silver
  • Copper
  • Zinc
  • Lithium carbonate
  • Uranium

These movements may result in different performances across Australia's mining and energy sectors.

Currency markets remain relatively stable

The Australian dollar traded with only modest movement against the US dollar overnight.

Stable currency conditions provide some certainty for exporters, although commodity prices generally remain the larger driver of sentiment across Australia's resource sector.

Currency fluctuations continue influencing export earnings, particularly for companies generating significant overseas revenue.

What else is on the market's radar?

Several additional developments may attract attention during today's trading session.

Commodity trends

Investors will continue monitoring oil and metal prices following overnight volatility.

Corporate announcements

Company-specific updates may influence trading across several sectors.

Trading halts

Peregrine Gold Ltd (ASX:PGD) remains in a trading halt pending an exploration update, while Cavalier Resources Ltd (ASX:CVR) is awaiting details regarding a financing arrangement.

Global markets

Further developments across overseas markets may continue influencing investor sentiment throughout the day.

What could shape today's ASX session?

Several themes are likely to remain important.

  • Commodity price movements.
  • Energy sector strength.
  • Mining sector performance.
  • Corporate announcements.
  • Global market sentiment.

Together, these factors will influence trading direction across the Australian market.

The Australian share market is expected to begin the session cautiously following mixed overnight performances across global markets. While rising oil prices may provide support for energy companies, weaker precious metals and industrial commodities could continue weighing on mining stocks. As investors monitor global economic developments and commodity markets, sector performance is likely to remain mixed throughout the trading day.

Frequently Asked Questions

  • Why is the ASX expected to open lower today?
    Softer futures follow mixed US market performance and weaker prices for several key commodities.
  • Which sector could benefit from rising oil prices?
    Australian energy companies may attract attention as crude oil prices recorded strong overnight gains.
  • Which companies are currently in trading halts?
    Peregrine Gold (ASX:PGD) and Cavalier Resources (ASX:CVR) remain in trading halts pending company announcements.

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