Mizuho upgrades Macerich as its sees risk-reward favorable

June 11, 2025 01:53 AM AEST | By Investing

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Mizuho upgrades Macerich as its sees risk-reward favorable — Image source: Kalkine Media

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Investing.com -- Mizuho upgraded mall operator Macerich Co (NYSE:MAC). to Outperform from Neutral and set a $18 price target, citing an improved risk profile, and upside potential from leasing and asset sales.

Macerich shares have lagged in 2025, down roughly 18 percentage points versus the MSCI U.S. REIT and 13 points behind peer Simon Property Group (NYSE:SPG).

Mizuho views this underperformance as an attractive entry point for investors seeking long-term upside.

The stock trades at a significant discount to its historical and peer valuations, as per the analysts at Mizuho pointing to a current multiple of about 10x forward FFO, versus a 20x sector average and 13x for SPG.

The upgrade follows strong progress under Macerich’s “Path Forward Plan” announced in 2024, including asset sales, leasing gains, and leverage reduction.

Mizuho noted the company is ahead of internal targets on leasing execution and expects leverage to decline from about 8x today to its target range of 6–6.5x by 2027 or 2028.

Macerich recently released a multi-year net operating income (NOI) bridge, and Mizuho sees upside to the plan’s assumptions. The firm forecasts a more than 5% CAGR in NOI through 2028 and estimates MAC could exceed its 2028 NOI goal of $880 million, potentially reaching $930 million.

MAC’s recent acquisition of Crabtree Mall and a pipeline of sales and give-backs totaling over $1 billion are also expected to support the turnaround.

Remaining planned dispositions are viewed as lower-risk, with greater institutional investor interest anticipated.

Despite lowering its prior price target from $22 to $18 to reflect a reduced valuation multiple, Mizuho sees potential for 30–40% long-term upside if execution continues and investor sentiment improves.

This article first appeared in Investing.com

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