Goldman Sachs lowers Tesla vehicle delivery estimates

June 06, 2025 09:41 PM AEST | By Investing

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Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs has lowered its Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) vehicle delivery and EPS estimates, citing "weaker monthly datapoints in key regions" such as China, the US, and Europe, along with concerning consumer survey data.

The investment bank now anticipates a more challenging environment for the electric vehicle manufacturer.

According to Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), U.S. deliveries through May are "tracking down mid teens yoy," based on data from Wards and Motor Intelligence.

European registration data for April is said to show a "50% yoy decline," with May data indicating a "mid 20% range yoy decline."

In China, the bank said that while April and May data suggest a low single digit sequential increase, it represents a "20% yoy decrease" compared to the same period last year.

Consequently, Goldman Sachs now projects Q2 2025 deliveries to be 365,000 units, a notable reduction from their previous estimate of 410,000 and "below Visible Alpha Consensus Data at 417K."

They believe Q2 deliveries could range between 335,000 and 395,000 depending on June’s performance and "the degree of incentives Tesla utilizes."

Consumer survey data from Morning Consult and HundredX, analyzed by Goldman Sachs with their Data Works team, indicates "weak" sentiment for Tesla in North America and Europe, while being "stronger in China."

This suggests "demand/brand issues may be contributing to weakness in the US and European markets," said Goldman Sachs. The believe the decline in China could stem from "competition and product cycle timing."

Reflecting these trends, Goldman Sachs has revised its delivery assumptions for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 1.575 million, 1.865 million, and 2.15 million units, respectively, down from prior estimates.

Despite the downward revisions, Goldman Sachs maintains a Neutral rating on Tesla shares, lowering their 12-month price target for the stock to $285 from $295.

This article first appeared in Investing.com

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