Barclays bumps fertilizer maker Mosaic rating on lower volatility in agri market

March 20, 2025 03:51 AM AEDT | By Investing

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Barclays bumps fertilizer maker Mosaic rating on lower volatility in agri market

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Investing.com -- Barclays upgraded Fertilizer manufacturer The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) to Overweight from Equal Weight and raised its price target to $33 from $27 saying there is a reduced volatility, cost efficiencies, and growth opportunities in key markets.

Mosaic outlined its capital reallocation and growth plans during its investor day on March 18, highlighting expectations for more normalized production costs and expanded market access.

Barclays (LON:BARC) noted that the company’s investments to reduce plant turnarounds, improve asset reliability, and implement digital upgrades should drive higher margins and lower earnings volatility starting this year.

“We expect Mosaic to begin realizing profit benefits as soon as this year,” Barclays said, pointing to the slowdown of facility maintenance and cost-saving initiatives.

Barclays also highlighted Mosaic’s focus on growth regions such as China and India and increased sales of higher-margin biologicals as contributors to long-term profit growth.

Mosaic guided to adjusted EBITDA of $3-$3.2 billion in 2026 and $3.3-$3.5 billion by 2030, driven by lower maintenance capex and improved operational efficiencies. While Barclays’ estimates are below the company’s targets due to ongoing trade and geopolitical uncertainties, it sees upside potential, with a $38 price target in a best-case scenario if trade headwinds ease.

Mosaic remains optimistic about the macro backdrop for fertilizers through 2030, driven by global population growth (+0.8% CAGR), rising grain and oilseed demand (+8-10% by 2030), and declining arable land (-6% CAGR).

Potash supply is expected to grow steadily, while phosphate supply may slow due to increasing demand from LFP batteries and energy storage, particularly in China.

Mosaic is targeting growth in potash and performance products in China and India, with plans to eventually expand into biosciences.

Barclays highlighted Mosaic’s strong in-country access and consistent profitability of ~$35/tonne in these regions, contributing an estimated $60-$80 million in additional adjusted EBITDA by 2030.

Barclays’ new $33 price target reflects an improved risk-reward profile for Mosaic, supported by cost savings, expanded market reach, and a positive macro outlook.

This article first appeared in Investing.com

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