ASX 200 set for positive start; Bond yields plunge on rate cut expectations

November 30, 2023 09:39 AM AEDT | By Investing
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Investing.com - The Australian Stock Exchange is set to experience a modest surge as bond yields continue to plummet, fueling strong anticipations that interest rate reductions are imminent. Wall Street, however, concluded with minimal changes after initially posting gains.

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The US 10-year yield fell below 4.30%, marking a 57 basis points decline over the past month. Renowned investor Bill Ackman of Pershing Capital expressed his belief that the Federal Reserve would have to implement rate cuts sooner than anticipated.

Today's agenda includes the release of local data on private sector credit for October, private capex for Q3, and building approvals for October. Overseas data includes New Zealand building permits, ANZ business confidence, China's November NBS manufacturing and services PMIs, Japan's October industrial production, Eurozone's November CPI and October unemployment rate, and the US's October personal income, personal spending, and PCE deflator.

Mesoblast Ltd (ASX:MSB) is set to announce its earnings, while companies like Imugene, Lake Resources, Link Administration, Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR), Mayne Pharma, Sayona Mining, and Wotso Property will host their annual meetings. Aristocrat Leisure and Technology will trade ex-dividend.

Strategists Matthew Ross and Tony Wu from Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) indicated that their economists no longer anticipate the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to increase rates. They urged investors to pay heed, especially since the economy continues to display little indication of a significant slowdown. Over the past three decades, the shortest duration between the last hike and the first cut has been six months, while the longest has been 19 months in the mid-90s.

ASX 200 Futures were lifted 0.5% by 7 am AEDT. The Australian dollar weakened by 0.5% to 66.18 US cents, while Bitcoin fell by 0.8% to $US37,782.

In addition to Ackman's prediction, Federal Reserve policymakers are increasingly hinting at maintaining the status quo in their December meeting. Fed Bank of Cleveland president Loretta Mester expressed her support for holding rates steady, asserting that the current policy is well-positioned to evaluate if inflation is returning to 2%. Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic expressed growing confidence in inflation's downward trend, while Richmond counterpart Thomas Barkin suggested the central bank should keep the option to hike.

Despite the current sentiment, JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) equity strategists maintained a less optimistic outlook for US equities compared to others on Wall Street. They predict a more challenging macro environment for stocks next year, given weakening consumer trends and significant shifts in investor positioning and sentiment.

This article first appeared in Investing.com


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