Kalkine: Sluggish Economic Growth Raises Questions About ASX200 Momentum

Highlights 

• Australia’s GDP grew just 0.2% in March quarter 
• Public spending dropped, dampening overall growth 
• Per capita GDP slipped again amid global uncertainties 

Australia’s economic growth slowed to just 0.2% in the March quarter of 2025, well below economist expectations. The latest GDP data shows a tepid 1.3% annual increase, signaling that the country's post-pandemic recovery may be losing steam. This softness follows 0.6% growth in the December quarter and reflects deepening challenges in both public and private sectors. 

Notably, public investment declined by 2%, while government final consumption remained flat—marking the largest drag on growth since the September 2017 quarter. This stands in contrast to 2024, when government spending was a key pillar of economic activity. The tapering of that stimulus, which previously offset sluggish private investment, has shifted attention toward the private sector’s ability to maintain momentum. 

While household consumption edged up by 0.4% and private investment lifted 0.7%, this was not enough to offset broader weaknesses. GDP per capita shrank by 0.2%, reversing a brief rebound in the December quarter and reigniting concerns about productivity and income stagnation. 

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) highlighted the role of extreme weather conditions in depressing economic output. Sectors such as mining, tourism, and logistics were particularly impacted. These disruptions weighed on domestic demand and export volumes. 

Katherine Keenan, ABS Head of National Accounts, noted, “Public spending recorded the largest detraction from growth since the September quarter 2017. Extreme weather events reduced domestic final demand and exports.” 

This economic backdrop brings attention to sectors and companies that have historically delivered steady performance even in low-growth environments. Among these are leading ASX dividend stocks such as (ASX:TLS), (ASX:WES), and (ASX:BHP), known for their resilience and regular shareholder returns. 

At the broader index level, the ASX200 remains a key barometer of Australian equity market health. Although the index has held up relatively well in 2025, persistent macroeconomic challenges and global policy shifts, including trade uncertainty under U.S. President Donald Trump’s new tariffs, could pressure business sentiment and capital expenditure. 

While the Australian economy remains fundamentally stable, the current figures underline a transition period. With public sector support easing, the onus may now fall on private industry and external trade partners to drive future growth. Investors and observers will be closely watching upcoming data for signs of a broader rebound or further weakness across ASX200 constituents.