ASX Stocks Set to Open Lower as Global Markets Balance Optimism and Caution

Highlights 

• ASX 200 set for weaker open despite Nasdaq's record high 
• Nvidia’s rally lifted tech sector amid broader caution 
• Corporate moves from ALS, Chalice Mining, GenusPlus and European Lithium draw attention 

The Australian share market is expected to open softer today, with ASX 200 futures indicating a 37-point decline (-0.43%) as of 8:30 am AEST. This comes despite a record-setting session on the Nasdaq (NASDAQ:IXIC), which was powered higher by a sharp rally in Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA). The AI chipmaker climbed 4.3% overnight, regaining its status as the world’s most valuable company with a market capitalisation of US$3.77 trillion. However, broader market caution tempered the upbeat sentiment, as investors braced for key US economic data and monitored rising geopolitical tensions and potential shifts in trade policy. 

While the Nasdaq 100 posted a modest gain of 0.3%, the S&P 500 closed flat and the Dow Jones slipped 0.25%, reflecting mixed investor sentiment. Losses in major names such as Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), FedEx (NYSE:FDX), and Paychex (NASDAQ:PAYX) followed weaker earnings or lowered forecasts. Additionally, comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated the central bank would wait for greater clarity on the economic impact of new trade agreements before considering rate cuts. Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty remains in the background, with former President Trump declaring the Middle East conflict “over for now” but warning of potential new tariffs on Spain and possible additional measures targeting China. 

Domestically, the S&P/ASX 200 (ASX200) managed a marginal rise of just 3.7 points (+0.04%) in the previous session, underperforming other global indices. Weakness in energy and resources weighed on performance, counterbalancing gains in financials led by the big banks. Market expectations for a rate cut have firmed following softer-than-expected May inflation data, with traders now assigning a 92% probability to a 25-basis point cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia in July. This backdrop may provide some support to interest rate-sensitive ASX200 Stocks, especially across financial and real estate sectors. 

On the corporate front, ALS Ltd (ASX:ALQ) raised $22.5 million through its share purchase plan, though it fell short of the initial $40 million goal, with shares issued at $16.51 each. Chalice Mining (ASX:CHN) reaffirmed that it remains on track to deliver a pre-feasibility study for its Gonneville project by the December quarter, with an environmental review due in mid-2026. GenusPlus Group (ASX:GNP) provided a stronger-than-expected outlook, raising its FY25 organic EBITDA growth forecast to between 28% and 32%, up from its earlier guidance of at least 20%, as infrastructure demand continues to bolster momentum. 

In small-cap developments, European Lithium Ltd (ASX:EUR, OTCQB:EULIF) announced it had sold 2 million shares of Nasdaq-listed Critical Metals Corp (NASDAQ:CRML) to a US institutional investor in an off-market transaction. The deal raised US$5 million (A$7.8 million), which the company said validates CRML’s valuation and highlights a pricing arbitrage between Australian and US markets. 

In the commodities space, oil prices rose overnight as US crude inventories declined and geopolitical risks appeared to recede. Brent crude gained 0.8% to US$67.68, gold advanced 0.3% to US$3,333.26 per ounce, and copper rose 0.6% to US$4.91 per pound. Iron ore dipped slightly by 0.1% to US$94.52 per tonne. The Australian dollar also strengthened, up 0.3% to 0.6513 against the US dollar, while Bitcoin increased 1.6% to US$107,684. 

Looking ahead, local investors are awaiting the May job vacancies report at 11:30 am AEST. The Star Entertainment Group (ASX:SGR) is also set to hold its annual general meeting today. While no companies are trading ex-dividend, 13 REITs — including various Charter Hall and Centuria entities — will do so tomorrow. Internationally, focus will remain on the release of final Q1 GDP figures, durable goods orders, and further comments from US Federal Reserve officials, as markets weigh the balance between optimism and caution.