ASX Set for Gains as Copper Hits Record Highs and US Markets Continue Rally

Highlight:

• ASX 200 futures point to a positive open following US equity strength
• Copper prices surge to record levels amid tariff speculation
• ANZ Group (ASX:ANZ) sees sharp late-session selloff despite morning strength

Australia's share market is expected to open higher, with ASX 200 futures rising by 47 points (+0.58%) as of 8:30 am AEDT. The local market follows a relatively quiet yet constructive overnight session in the US, where the S&P 500 recorded a third consecutive day of gains. The latest federal budget for FY2025–26 was also released, though most of its major announcements had been pre-revealed, leading to limited immediate market impact.

Overnight, Wall Street posted another modest advance as traders digested geopolitical and macroeconomic developments. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both edged higher, although the Equal-weight S&P 500 benchmark slipped 0.24%, reflecting underperformance in some sectors. Despite the subdued session, US retail investor inflows have remained robust, with more than US$67 billion pumped into equities so far in 2025.

The copper market stole headlines as prices surged to record highs. This came amid growing concerns that tariffs may be imposed on industrial metals, especially under a potential second Trump administration. These developments have buoyed related mining and resource equities globally, with Australian producers likely to benefit from the momentum.

On the domestic front, attention remains on ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX:ANZ) after the stock abruptly reversed course in Tuesday’s trade. Opening 0.75% higher, the stock plunged 3.1% by the close, with trading volumes spiking to 132% above the 20-day average. While the catalyst behind the sharp move remains unclear, speculation points to possible fund offloading or institutional selling. Investor focus will likely remain on whether the stock can stabilise or recover in the upcoming sessions.

Several ASX-listed companies reported significant developments. Endeavour Group Ltd (ASX:EDV) is undergoing a strategic review led by Chairman Ari Mervis, which could result in a structural overhaul or private equity interest. KMD Brands Ltd (ASX:KMD) reported a 0.5% lift in 1H25 revenue to $470.9 million but posted a statutory loss of $20.7 million due to restructuring, software costs, and leasing impacts.

Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX:PDN) announced the restart of operations at its Langer Heinrich uranium project but indicated it may fall short of reaching the targeted 6 million pounds per annum run-rate by the end of calendar 2025. Talga Group Ltd (ASX:TLG) received a strategic project designation from the European Commission for its Swedish graphite project, positioning the company as a key player in Europe’s critical materials supply chain.

Tuas Ltd (ASX:TUA) posted a turnaround in 1H25 net profit after tax, recording SG$3.0 million compared to a SG$3.5 million loss a year ago. Revenue surged 34%, reflecting strong operational performance. Vulcan Energy Resources Ltd (ASX:VUL) was also awarded strategic project status for its Lionheart lithium project under the Critical Raw Materials Act.

Commodity markets remained a key driver overnight. Copper, gold, and silver saw continued upward momentum, with mining-linked ETFs rising between 1% and 2%. Crude oil markets also firmed, as traders anticipated possible tighter US sanctions, prompting increased bullish positioning.

In global equities, notable updates included Tesla’s weakening market share in Europe, marking a second month of declining sales. Alibaba Group’s Chairman Joe Tsai suggested that the current boom in data centre construction is beginning to show bubble-like characteristics, given the risk of oversupply in the face of AI-driven demand projections.

Shell plc (ASX:SHEL) outlined plans to expand LNG sales by 4% to 5% annually through to 2030. Meanwhile, Meta Platforms announced plans to introduce a £14 monthly subscription for ad-free versions of Facebook and Instagram in the UK.

Currency markets saw the US dollar head for its weakest monthly performance since 2023, pressured by escalating tariff anxieties. The Indonesian rupiah plunged to levels last seen during the global financial crisis as foreign outflows accelerated. Southeast Asian markets, more broadly, have experienced persistent capital flight during the first quarter due to uncertainty surrounding US tariffs and an uneven China recovery.

The geopolitical landscape remained tense. Former US President Donald Trump’s proposals to levy tariffs on Chinese shipping vessels sparked concern across the US agricultural sector, while the European Union continues to navigate diplomatic efforts to avoid a trade conflict. India expressed willingness to lower tariffs on up to US$23 billion of US imports as part of broader trade deal discussions.

In Australia, the new federal budget highlighted measures aimed at cost-of-living relief, housing, and energy bill support. However, most key items had already been publicly disclosed prior to the budget release. Attention is now turning to the potential market implications across sectors including banking, real estate, infrastructure, and resources.

Looking ahead, market watchers will keep a close eye on the performance of Australian banks after Tuesday’s broad selloff. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA), Westpac Banking Corporation (ASX:WBC), National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX:NAB), and ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX:ANZ) all came under pressure intraday. Given the heightened volumes and volatility, these names may remain in focus during today’s session.

Sectoral divergence in the US overnight could also shape trading on the ASX. Real Estate, Healthcare, and Utilities stocks underperformed despite major indices rising. This trend was also mirrored in ETF flows, which showed relative weakness in uranium and biotech-related funds.

On the positive side, mining and materials may continue to lead, driven by ongoing strength in commodity markets. The sustained rally in copper prices, in particular, has raised the profile of base metal producers and associated explorers.

Recent broker updates included a rating shift for Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Ltd (ASX:FPH), with its target price trimmed to NZ$37.30 from NZ$38.10. Ramelius Resources Ltd (ASX:RMS) also received an upgraded price target of $2.50, up from $2.30, reflecting the supportive environment for gold and precious metal stocks.

As global markets navigate a complex mix of inflation expectations, geopolitical uncertainty, and sector-specific shifts, today's trading session on the ASX is likely to be shaped by a combination of overseas cues, commodity momentum, and investor response to recent earnings and budget announcements.