ASX Preview: Australian Shares Set for Softer Open as Oil Retreats; Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) Eyes FY26 Gold Sales Target

4 min read | July 02, 2026 11:03 AM AEST | By Sam

Highlights

  • Australian shares are expected to open lower after oil prices eased on renewed US-Iran diplomatic developments.
  • Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) remains on track to meet its fiscal 2026 gold sales guidance ahead of year-end reporting.
  • Commodity movements and global market sentiment are likely to influence early trading across the ASX 200 .

Australian shares are poised for a weaker start after declines in oil prices weighed on broader market sentiment overnight. While easing geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran reduced energy price concerns, attention is shifting back toward company fundamentals as the new financial year begins. Among the companies attracting interest is Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST), which is expected to deliver gold sales in line with its fiscal 2026 guidance. The latest developments also place renewed focus on Gold Stocks as commodity markets continue responding to global macroeconomic events.

ASX expected to open lower

Market indicators pointed to a softer opening for Australian equities after oil prices retreated following reports of renewed diplomatic engagement between the United States and Iran.

Lower crude prices may influence energy stocks during the opening session, while broader market sentiment is expected to remain cautious ahead of additional economic data releases.

The Australian market will also continue assessing international developments, including commodity price movements and central bank expectations.

Oil prices ease on diplomatic developments

Energy markets softened after reports suggested progress in discussions aimed at easing tensions between the United States and Iran.

A decline in oil prices generally reduces inflationary concerns but may weigh on energy producers that benefit from stronger crude prices.

Commodity markets remain sensitive to geopolitical headlines, making oil one of the key themes for traders throughout the session.

Northern Star Resources remains in focus

Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) is expected to remain one of the closely watched gold producers as it approaches the end of fiscal 2026.

The company is anticipated to meet its previously outlined gold sales guidance, reinforcing attention on its operational performance ahead of its upcoming financial results.

Market participants will also monitor production updates and operational efficiency across the company's Australian mining portfolio.

Gold sector continues attracting attention

Gold producers remain under close observation as investors balance movements in bullion prices with company-specific production outcomes.

Key themes influencing the sector include:

  • Gold production volumes
  • Operational costs
  • Mine development progress
  • Commodity price movements
  • Capital allocation

Northern Star continues to be one of Australia's largest listed gold producers within the sector.

Commodity markets remain influential

Commodity price movements continue to play a significant role in shaping Australian market performance.

While weaker oil prices may pressure energy stocks, precious metals, bulk commodities and industrial metals remain key drivers for resource-focused companies listed on the ASX.

Global economic conditions and currency movements also continue influencing commodity demand expectations.

Global markets set the tone

Overseas market performance provided mixed signals heading into the Australian trading session.

Investors continue monitoring:

  • Central bank policy expectations
  • Inflation trends
  • Commodity prices
  • Geopolitical developments
  • Corporate earnings outlook

These factors remain important drivers of daily market sentiment.

Northern Star's operational outlook

Northern Star has continued focusing on delivering production targets across its Australian operations.

Meeting fiscal 2026 guidance would reinforce the company's operational execution as it prepares to release its annual financial results.

Future updates are expected to provide additional detail regarding:

  • Gold sales
  • Production volumes
  • Operating costs
  • Capital expenditure
  • Development projects

What to watch during today's session

Market participants are expected to monitor several developments throughout the trading day:

  • Opening performance of the ASX 200
  • Oil price movements
  • Gold sector performance
  • Northern Star Resources operational updates
  • Broader commodity market trends

These factors could shape trading activity across multiple sectors.

Australian shares appear set for a cautious start as easing oil prices offset some of the optimism seen across global markets. Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) remains a key company to watch as it approaches the end of fiscal 2026 with expectations of meeting its gold sales guidance. Commodity prices, geopolitical developments and company-specific updates are likely to remain central themes throughout the trading session.

Frequently Asked Questions

  • Why are Australian shares expected to open lower?
    Softer oil prices following renewed US-Iran diplomatic developments have weighed on market sentiment ahead of the ASX open.
  • Why is Northern Star Resources in focus?
    Northern Star Resources is expected to meet its fiscal 2026 gold sales guidance as the financial year concludes.
  • Which sectors could attract attention today?
    Gold, energy and broader resource stocks are expected to remain closely watched as commodity prices continue influencing market sentiment.

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