ASX Poised for Cautious Start Amid Easing Geopolitical Risks and Falling Oil Prices

3 min read | June 25, 2025 10:27 AM AEST | By Team Kalkine Media

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ASX Poised for Cautious Start Amid Easing Geopolitical Risks and Falling Oil Prices — Image source: shutterstock

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Highlights

ASX 200 eyes a steady start as oil retreats and global tensions ease

Tech and travel stocks shine amid Wall Street optimism

Key small caps report strategic progress and milestone deals

The Australian share market is expected to open flat on Wednesday, following a wave of optimism from global markets. ASX 200 futures edged up 5 points (+0.05%) by 8:30 am AEST, as investor sentiment steadied with falling oil prices and stabilising geopolitical conditions. This comes after a volatile week marked by the tentative Israel-Iran ceasefire and an upbeat Wall Street rally.

US equity markets saw a strong rebound overnight, driven by investor relief over easing conflict tensions and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s reiteration that monetary policy adjustments remain data-dependent. The S&P 500 surged 1.11%, closing near all-time highs, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.43%, buoyed by strength in semiconductor and AI-focused firms. The Dow Jones also added 1.19%, with travel and consumer sectors contributing notably.

Crude oil prices fell sharply, with WTI dropping 6.04% to US$64.37 per barrel and Brent down 6.1% to US$67.14, following the de-escalation in the Middle East. While energy shares retreated, this movement supported broader market sentiment and provided a tailwind for transportation stocks.

Locally, the S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.95% higher on Tuesday at 8,556, lifted by strong performances in materials and financials. Resource-related firms like Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN) saw increased attention, particularly with the company announcing a CEO transition.

In corporate developments, Droneshield (ASX:DRO) secured $61.6 million in repeat defence contracts from a European client, and SRG Global (ASX:SRG) landed $850 million in infrastructure and energy sector deals. In the payments space, SmartPay Holdings (ASX:SMP) accepted a NZ$1.20-per-share acquisition offer from US-based Shift4 Payments.

Small cap firms also made headlines. Astral Resources (ASX:AAR) released a robust pre-feasibility study for its Mandilla Gold Project, estimating annual production of 95,000 ounces. Meanwhile, Dynamic Metals (ASX:DYM) completed soil sampling at its Courvoisier prospect, with assay results expected in late July. Evion Group (ASX:EVG) secured its maiden expandable graphite shipment valued at ~$400,000 from its Indian JV facility, and Firebird Metals (ASX:FRB) reported cathode test results exceeding Chinese benchmarks—an encouraging step toward pilot production.

On the economic calendar, all eyes are on Australia’s May CPI release, expected to show inflation easing to 2.3% year-on-year. A softer figure could revive speculation around potential rate cuts. Additionally, the Infragreen Group is set to debut on the ASX in an IPO listing at 11:00 am AEST.

As the broader ASX landscape continues to evolve, market watchers are also keeping an eye on the ASX300 segment for investment signals across the mid-to-large cap space.

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