ASX 200 Outlook for April 14: Aussie Index Eyes Recovery Following Broad-Based Decline

April 14, 2025 05:07 PM AEST | By Team Kalkine Media
 ASX 200 Outlook for April 14: Aussie Index Eyes Recovery Following Broad-Based Decline

Highlights

  • ASX 200 ended lower amid losses in energy, materials, and financial sectors

  • Wall Street strength over the weekend lifted global sentiment

  • Technical indicators signal near-term support after Friday’s intraday rebound

The Australian equity benchmark, the S&P/ASX 200, faced a downward trend during the previous session, ending in the red after a choppy trading day. The index experienced a steep fall shortly after the open, driven by weakness across heavyweight sectors, before a partial recovery trimmed earlier losses.

Despite opening higher, the benchmark declined through the session, touching its intraday low before closing at a level notably below its opening mark. Friday's movement marked a continuation of broader market softness that had been visible throughout the week.

Sector Performance and Key Drivers of Decline

Several sectors contributed to the index’s slide during the session.

The energy segment experienced a pullback due to declining crude oil benchmarks globally. This was largely attributed to lower-than-expected demand signals across key international markets.

The materials sector, which holds significant weight within the index, also trended downward. Concerns around weakening industrial activity in China weighed on sentiment, affecting mining and related stocks.

The financial segment saw pressure as the major banks underperformed. With the banking sector comprising a substantial portion of the ASX 200, its weakness had a notable impact on the broader index performance.

Global Market Influence and Wall Street Uplift

Global markets shifted to a more optimistic tone by the end of the week, led by gains across key U.S. indices. A combination of easing inflation metrics, solid earnings reports from major banks, and a decline in Treasury yields helped lift equity benchmarks in New York.

These gains have historically had a correlated influence on Australian markets, given the interconnected nature of global investor sentiment. The overnight strength across global markets may support the local bourse at the start of the new trading week.

Technical Setup for the ASX 200 Index

The technical picture for the ASX 200 reveals that key support levels were tested during Friday’s sell-off. The benchmark found buying interest around the lower boundary of recent trading ranges, which helped push it off its session lows.

Immediate support is observed near a previously established base, with a further floor appearing lower down the chart. Resistance levels, meanwhile, remain at the top end of the short-term channel established in recent weeks.

Momentum indicators are displaying mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index has edged closer to a balanced zone, reflecting reduced selling intensity. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence remains on the bearish side but has begun to flatten, indicating a slowdown in downward momentum.

Macroeconomic Events on the Radar

Participants are expected to monitor several key macroeconomic developments as the week begins.

Statements or updates from the Reserve Bank of Australia will be closely watched, particularly for insights into domestic monetary policy.

In addition, industrial production data from China is expected to draw attention, especially for its implications on the commodities space, given Australia’s trade links with the region.

Upcoming comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve may also influence global market sentiment and trading direction, especially regarding policy stance and interest rate outlook.


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