ASX 200 Forecast: What Lies Ahead After April’s Sharp Swings?

Highlights

• ASX 200 shares rebounded after early April weakness linked to international trade developments

• Macquarie outlines two directional views for May trading, leaning toward further testing of previous lows

• Portfolio positioning remains defensive, with emphasis on healthcare, staples, gold, REITs, and bond proxies

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX:XJO) and All Ordinaries Index (ASX:XAO) have experienced a turbulent stretch following international tariff headlines, but recent movements show resilience in key sectors including healthcare, staples, infrastructure, and real estate. Prominent companies across these segments are part of the current discussion, including CSL Ltd (ASX:CSL), ResMed CDI (ASX:RMD), Ramsay Health Care Ltd (ASX:RHC), Coles Group Ltd (ASX:COL), and Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX:WOW).

Sector volatility and April performance

Early April saw declines following tariff developments out of the United States. A sharp pullback in the benchmark index culminated in a correction phase. However, subsequent easing in global rhetoric contributed to a swift rebound in local equities. By the end of April, the ASX 200 had reclaimed ground, with price action showing signs of stability. Although the index has recovered from its intramonth low, outlooks for May reflect differing expectations on whether recent strength will persist or reverse.

Macquarie outlines directional scenarios for ASX 200

Macquarie has released updated commentary highlighting two prevailing directional views on the ASX 200's next phase. The more optimistic view points to an easing of tariff concerns and broad-based market strength. The other view centers around the belief that markets are nearing the peak of a short-term upward movement, with economic data and tariff consequences still weighing on earnings.

Macquarie favors the latter scenario and sees a chance for a retest of earlier lows in the index. This would align with broader trends in global macro data and sustained elevated yield levels. Further policy shifts or renewed tariff-related developments could impact sentiment again in the near term.

ASX dividends and sector defensiveness

Macquarie maintains a defensive stance in its Australian Strategy Portfolio, with particular emphasis on companies that historically deliver consistent asx dividends. Its positioning leans toward healthcare, consumer staples, and gold producers, reflecting themes of earnings resilience and inflation sensitivity.

In healthcare, names such as CSL Ltd (ASX:CSL), Ramsay Health Care Ltd (ASX:RHC), and ResMed CDI (ASX:RMD) remain in focus. These companies are often viewed as defensive plays with stable revenue streams. In the consumer staples arena, Coles Group Ltd (ASX:COL) and Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX:WOW) are prominent for their role in essential goods distribution.

Gold, bond proxies, and infrastructure

Gold remains another core sector of interest. Key exposures include Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX:NST) and Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX:NEM), both of which are positioned amid ongoing currency and inflation themes.

Bond proxies such as Telstra Group Ltd (ASX:TLS), APA Group (ASX:APA), and Transurban Group (ASX:TCL) also form a substantial portion of the allocation. These companies often exhibit characteristics similar to fixed-income instruments, making them attractive in uncertain market climates.

Real estate investment trust exposure

In anticipation of adjustments in interest rate policy, real estate investment trusts have also been included in the defensive portfolio framework. Companies such as Goodman Group (ASX:GMG), Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR), and GPT Group (ASX:GPT) provide exposure to diversified property assets, with performance closely tied to rate expectations and commercial activity trends.

Summary of current positioning

Overall, the portfolio emphasizes stability through sectors with lower economic sensitivity, dividend consistency, and inflation hedges. While broader index movements remain fluid, the current configuration reflects an alignment with segments historically known for reduced volatility and relative earnings consistency.