West Coast ports see 30% decline in freight volume amid tariffs, TD Cowen says

April 29, 2025 08:45 AM AEST | By Investing

Google News:

West Coast ports see 30% decline in freight volume amid tariffs, TD Cowen says

Recent News

Jefferies upgrades Darden on improving Olive Garden traffic and value...

Visa, Mastercard stocks fall after stablecoin report

Ford still struggling with rare earth supplies

The Roger Effect: How One Refugee Father Transformed His Family and Co...

Investing.com -- TD Cowen analysts highlighted significant decreases in shipping volumes at U.S. ports during a critical import season. According to Jason Seidl of TD Cowen, ocean freight data from Asia to the U.S. has seen a steep drop, with volumes down by 30% on the West Coast and 12% on the East Coast. The decline is attributed to several major retailers halting the shipment of non-essential items from China temporarily, due to the ongoing tariff paralysis which continues to impact the transportation sector and the broader economy negatively.

The firm’s industry contacts have observed similar trends, with a North American ocean forwarder and intermodal player witnessing a 30% drop in container volumes on the West Coast and a 12% decrease on the East Coast. Retail and apparel customers are reportedly ceasing shipments of non-essential goods from China temporarily. Furthermore, Kuehne&Nagel (SIX:KNIN) International AG confirmed significant declines in outbound ocean freight from China on their first-quarter call, and these declines are beginning to affect U.S. ports.

The spring season is typically vital for U.S. imports as it follows a post-holiday lull and precedes the summer essential goods import and back-to-school planning. However, the freight market is currently experiencing a "volume air pocket" as the robust volumes seen earlier in the first quarter have given way to sharp declines. Macro data indicates that inventory levels had been rising ahead of the tariff increase, with the ISM Manufacturing Inventories index hitting an expansionary phase in March at 53.4, a level not seen since 2022.

The TD Cowen Rail Survey revealed that 44% of respondents had moved goods ahead of tariffs early in the year. However, the survey also indicated that the amount of goods pulled forward was limited and unlikely to sustain the approximately one month of tariff paralysis already experienced. According to the survey, 48% of shippers pulling freight forward moved only 0%-5% of their volume, 33% moved between 5%-10%, and 16% moved between 10%-15%. This suggests that rail and truck volumes could face significant pressure in the coming weeks, potentially leading to adverse headlines for the transport sector.

This article first appeared in Investing.com

Disclaimer

The content, including but not limited to any articles, news, quotes, information, data, text, reports, ratings, opinions, images, photos, graphics, graphs, charts, animations and video (Content) is a service of Kalkine Media Pty Ltd (“Kalkine Media, we or us”), ACN 629 651 672 and is available for personal and non-commercial use only. The principal purpose of the Content is to educate and inform. The Content does not contain or imply any recommendation or opinion intended to influence your financial decisions and must not be relied upon by you as such. Some of the Content on this website may be sponsored/non-sponsored, as applicable, but is NOT a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell or hold the stocks of the company(s) or engage in any investment activity under discussion. Kalkine Media is neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice through this platform. Users should make their own enquiries about any investments and Kalkine Media strongly suggests the users to seek advice from a financial adviser, stockbroker or other professional (including taxation and legal advice), as necessary.
The content published on Kalkine Media also includes feeds sourced from third-party providers. Kalkine does not assert any ownership rights over the content provided by these third-party sources. The inclusion of such feeds on the Website is for informational purposes only. Kalkine does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the content obtained from third-party feeds. Furthermore, Kalkine Media shall not be held liable for any errors, omissions, or inaccuracies in the content obtained from third-party feeds, nor for any damages or losses arising from the use of such content.
Kalkine Media hereby disclaims any and all the liabilities to any user for any direct, indirect, implied, punitive, special, incidental or other consequential damages arising from any use of the Content on this website, which is provided without warranties. The views expressed in the Content by the guests, if any, are their own and do not necessarily represent the views or opinions of Kalkine Media. Some of the images/music that may be used on this website are copyrighted to their respective owner(s). Kalkine Media does not claim ownership of any of the pictures displayed/music used on this website unless stated otherwise. The images/music that may be used on this website are taken from various sources on the internet, including paid subscriptions or are believed to be in public domain. We have made reasonable efforts to accredit the source wherever it was indicated as or found to be necessary.
This disclaimer is subject to change without notice. Users are advised to review this disclaimer periodically for any updates or modifications.