Crude oil slips lower; Gaza ceasefire talks set to continue

August 19, 2024 10:14 PM AEST | By Investing

Crude oil slips lower; Gaza ceasefire talks set to continue

China’s economy losing momentum

Both benchmarks fell nearly 2% at the end of last week, and have continued to weaken, after data from China showed its economy lost momentum in July, with new home prices falling at the fastest pace in nine years, industrial output slowing and unemployment rising.

Gaza ceasefire talks to continue

Attention turns now to Gaza ceasefire talks, which are set to continue this week in Cairo, following a two-day meeting in Doha last week.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday called the latest diplomatic push by Washington to achieve a ceasefire deal in Gaza "probably the best, maybe the last opportunity" and urged all parties to get the agreement over the finish line.

There has been increased urgency to reach a ceasefire deal amid fears of escalation across the wider region, an upsurge that could impact supply from this oil-rich region.

That said, the mediating countries - Qatar, the United States and Egypt - have so far failed to narrow enough differences to reach an agreement in months of on-off negotiations, and violence continued unabated in Gaza on Sunday.

Complex crude landscape

The global oil market is navigating a complex landscape marked by divergent supply and demand trends, geopolitical uncertainties, and evolving macroeconomic conditions, according to BofA Securities analysts, in a note dated Aug. 16.

Oil demand growth is slowing down materially as EV penetration rates ramp up in China and elsewhere, said BofA Securities analysts, in a note dated Aug. 16, “so we see global oil demand growth averaging 1mn b/d in 2024 and 1.1mn b/d in 2025.”

Additionally, non-OPEC+ oil production is expected to increase significantly, with a projected growth of about 1 million barrels per day year-over-year in 2024 and 1.6 million b/d year-over-year in 2025, while OPEC+ plans to potentially reintroduce some barrels into the market in the fourth quarter of 2024.

This article first appeared in Investing.com

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