Oil prices settle lower as China concerns weigh; US inventory data in focus

July 31, 2024 04:34 AM AEST | By Investing

Oil prices settle lower as China concerns weigh; US inventory data in focus

Weak Chinese data weighs

A raft of disappointing economic news from China has weighed heavily on commodity prices, particularly after the country's GDP data disappointed earlier this month.

The Politburo, a top decision-making body of the ruling Communist Party, pledged at the end of its July meeting to pursue a "proactive" fiscal policy, suggesting more stimulus ahead in order to boost the country's struggling economy.

"We believe recent liquidation is being driven by macro and algorithmic flows as demand from China, the world's largest crude importer, posted its slowest economic growth in five quarters," Macquarie said in a Tuesday note.

Supply risks ease as Israel says not seeking war

Traders were also seen pricing out a risk premium from crude after media reports said Israeli officials were not seeking all-out war with Lebanon in their retaliation for a rocket strike that killed 12 in Israel-occupied Golan Heights.

Officials said they were preparing for a few days of fighting following the strike, although Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flagged a “harsh” response to the attack.

While the prospect of an all-out war in the Middle East does present some supply risks for crude, there has been so far little disruptions in oil production in the region, even with the Israel-Hamas war reaching its ninth month.

OPEC meeting, US inventories due

Caution before a meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries due Thursday also weighed on sentiment even as many expect that the cartel to downplay any plans for scaling back production cuts.

There could also be some support from the latest U.S. inventory reports due this week, which are expected to show lower crude and fuel stocks.

"Despite the recent pullback, it would not surprise us if prices find support from summer draws through the end of August before beginning a multimonth pullback due to large 4Q24 surpluses," Macquarie added.

(Peter Nurse, Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)

This article first appeared in Investing.com

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