Weathering the Storm: Defining Extreme Weather With Our NRG Load Forecasting Team

Originally published o NRG Energy Insights

From potential power loss to property damage, extreme weather events can often stir up a lot of challenges and cause feelings of concern, stress, and uncertainty. However, despite its seemingly unpredictable nature, our teams work year-round to prepare for all kinds of severe climate – with the ultimate goal of protecting and supporting our customers. In this series, we will provide a comprehensive look at NRG’s extreme weather strategy, kicking things off with an introductory breakdown from Jon deJong, Manager, Load Analytics & Meteorologist.

Jon, what is load forecasting?

In its simplest sense, load forecasting is used to predict how much electricity and natural gas gets used based on different types of weather and customer characteristics. This can be for an entire region, like ERCOT, or for a group of customers, like our residential customers in Houston. We use historical data to help predict what the future may look like.

This is important because what we do supports system reliability and helps ensure that NRG’s supply meets the demands of our customers through typical and extreme weather conditions.

How do we define an extreme weather event?

NRG services customers across the U.S. and Canada, so we understand our customers are exposed to unique weather patterns, transmission systems, and structural differences specific to their respective regions. In other words, what constitutes as an extreme weather event in one location, may not have the same impact in a different location.

During Winter Storm Uri in 2021, the extremely cold temperatures across Texas may not have been seen as significant compared to the winter weather typically seen in colder regions. However, the bitter cold and wintry precipitation that Texas received impacted generation, natural gas, and transmission facilities, resulting in an unprecedented disruption of electric service.

The load forecasting team is constantly monitoring weather patterns and paying close attention to situations that show signs of impacting a large geographical area over a long period of time with difficult conditions. Heat waves or winter storms that affect multiple cities over the course of several days are a good example of this. There are exceptions (like hurricanes, which tend to severely affect a small area over a short window), but, in general, these events place prolonged strain on the grid, making them particularly important to watch.

How does extreme weather impact energy systems?

Each region is structurally prepared for the type of extreme weather they typically face. Plants in northern regions, for example, are built to withstand extremely low temperatures. These guidelines have been set in place by regulators and influenced by past events. While there is still a chance that a weather event can have an unprecedented effect, NRG works hard to ensure our facilities abide by standards that help us deliver reliable power to our customers.

It's important to note that the impact of severe weather, though, is not limited to NRG and our domain.

When rough weather blows into town, it can also affect pipelines, meters, power lines, and other types of transmission and distribution infrastructure, disrupting the energy system’s ability to deliver power to customers. While suppliers, like NRG, do not have an active role in preparing these areas of the energy system for extreme weather, we coordinate with grid operators to make sure they have information about our facilities so that they get an accurate picture of how the overall grid is holding up.

In short, our load forecasting team is continuously watching weather, monitoring demand patterns, and working with our colleagues at the plants to help them deliver reliable power to the grid. Especially, as extreme weather is becoming an increasingly frequent phenomena and energy demand continues to grow, understanding severe climate events is crucial.

Along with load forecasting, NRG takes proactive efforts to assess risks and develop strategies to mitigate the impacts of weather events. In our next installment of Weathering the Storm, we will explore the innovative approaches our teams are implementing to ensure the reliability of energy supply in the face of an unpredictable climate. Stay tuned!