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As the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic seems to be finally receding in India, the trail of tragedies that it has left behind is beyond imagination. It will probably take years to come out of it.
Officially, 335,114 Indians have lost their lives to COVID-19 till now, and 28.3 million have been infected. But, since the second wave’s onset, the numbers have been said to be fudged. Last week, an independent estimate pegged the actual death toll at 1.6 million in India, and the number of cases at a staggering 539 million.
Irrespective of the number – the heart-wrenching ways these people have lost their lives – will cause post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms in all those affected. Either of the death tolls means that hundreds of thousands of families have lost their loved ones, without getting an access to even basic medicine. As COVID-19 spread its deadly tentacles across India, many died on the floors in hospital corridors, on stretchers, and even in auto rickshaws, waiting for oxygen. As if it was not enough, many of those dead, had to fight for dignified last rites – and in many cases dead bodies were dumped in the Ganges – a river considered as sacred by millions of Indians and centrepiece of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s right-wing ideology.
The trauma of the pandemic aside, this has caused an irreparable damage to the country’s economy as well. The unemployment rate across the country peaked on 31 May 2021 to 11.9%, with urban unemployment at an alarming 14.86%, in a country that was trying to come out of the worst recession in its history.
India’s gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 7.3% in FY21 ended March. The policy makers were banking on a V-shaped recovery. Though after the last year’s contraction, there were signs of V-shaped recovery, but experts say that it is out of the question now – and there are many reasons for it.
Unlike the last year, the restrictions have been localised in nature this time, so the economic growth will only resume when COVID-19 has fully receded.
Also given the high case count this time around, the household savings of many Indians might have dipped by this time, catering to the medical expenses of family members. This would hamper any kind of consumption spree in India – a tool successive governments have relied on to unleash India’s economic potential. According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the second wave of COVID-19 left 97% of households poorer – which, many believe, belonged to economically middle and lower class.
To add to the woes, the slow pace of vaccinations in the country will also keep people wary and cautious about the impending third wave.
But that doesn’t stop here. The second wave of COVID-19 has left a staggering 10 million Indians jobless – enough to pull the plugs on any kind of demand simulation without cash benefits being doled out generously.
That is probably why India’s largest lender – the State Bank of India (SBI) – has revised down the growth forecast for the country to 7.9%. Several other rating agencies have also pegged it at around 8% to 9%. In all likelihood, India might not see itself returning to the pre-pandemic level anytime soon, like Australia did on Wednesday.
(The opinions expressed in this blog are those of the author and they do not reflect the opinions or views of the organisation.)
