Inflation data to set the scene for next cash rate call

The Reserve Bank will get the missing ingredient it needs to make its next interest rate decision this week.

A still-high but easing inflation reading is expected from the Australian Bureau of Statistics when it releases the quarterly consumer price index on Wednesday.

AMP Capital economist Shane Oliver said the March quarter CPI was likely to confirm inflation peaked in the December quarter and cost of living pressures were losing steam. 

He said weakening in the monthly inflation index and signs of easing inflation in business surveys suggested inflation was backing off from its peak of 7.8 per cent annual growth in the December quarter.

"Expect a further acceleration in rent, gas and electricity inflation but roughly flat fuel prices and slower goods prices, new dwelling construction costs and holiday travel costs," he wrote in an analysis.

AMP Capital economists are anticipating 6.9 per cent annual growth in the March quarter headline inflation index and a 1.3 per cent quarterly lift. 

They predict the trimmed mean moderating to 6.7 per cent year-on-year from 6.9 per cent in line with the RBA's most recent forecast.

Dr Oliver said there was a lot riding on the inflation data ahead of the central bank's May meeting and that numbers in line with his predictions may not be enough to ward off another hike.

His base case is for the central bank to keep interest rates on hold for another month, after it paused in April, but he said it was clear from the last board meeting minutes it was leaning towards further increases.

ANZ economists are also expecting the bank to keep the cash rate on hold in May but for inflation to prove stubborn in the second quarter, prompting a final 25 basis point hike in August.

The bank's economists are also forecasting a sharp decline in headline inflation to 6.9 per cent in the March quarter but the trimmed mean, non-tradables and services inflation will remain sticky. 

"Given the risk of inflation expectations shifting, this is a concern," ANZ senior economist Catherine Birch wrote in a report. 

The inflation report is likely to dominate the economic agenda in a week broken up by ANZAC Day on Tuesday.

The ABS will also release government finance and taxation revenue data this week, as well as statistics on the rental market and temporary visa holders.

Further insights into the RBA review, released last week, will be revealed via a panel discussion with the reviewers on Monday.

Dr Gordon de Brouwer, Professor Renée Fry‑McKibbin and Professor Carolyn Wilkins will speak on the landmark report at a CEDA event at the start of the week. 

Meanwhile, Wall Street closed Friday local time on an even keel after heightened business activity made predicting the US Fed's monetary policy trickier and as investors await megacap results.

The S&P 500 gained 3.89 points, or 0.09 per cent, to end at 4,133.68 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 13.82 points, or 0.11 per cent, to 12,073.37 and the Dow Jones rose 23.05 points, or 0.07 per cent, to 33,809.67.

Australian futures fell 8.0 points, or 0.10 per cent, to 10,489.

The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index on Friday finished down 31.8 points, or 0.43 per cent.