Sapling Financial Consultants Launches Green Shoots M&A Index

Index finds Canadian M&A poised to rise as U.S. deal flow rebounds

Toronto, Ontario--(Newsfile Corp. - June 12, 2025) - Sapling Financial Consultants has released its first Green Shoots M&A Index for Canada and the U.S., a data-driven model that predicts North American M&A trends. The index reveals a rebound in U.S. deal flow, positioning Canadian M&A activity to follow suit, with the model forecasting growth in June.

In Canada, the Green Shoots M&A Index landed at 'Sprout' with a predictive value of 44 out of 100, suggesting a stable M&A environment with early signs of recovery, signalling a cautious return of investment confidence. Canada recorded 241 M&A deals in May, with Sapling's model forecasting a modest rise to 247 in June.

In the U.S., the Green Shoots M&A Index registered a score of 43 out of 100, earning a 'Sprout,' level of M&A activity, reflecting market stability and the first signs of renewed deal-making. In May, the U.S. saw 1,308 M&A transactions, with Sapling's model projecting an increase to 1,388 deals in June.

Sapling's Green Shoots M&A Index Growth Scale (Canada and U.S.)

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The index tracks U.S. and Canadian M&A volumes alongside key macroeconomic and market indicators. The U.S. model leverages historical and forecasted deal activity with leading signals to gauge sentiment and momentum. The Canadian index incorporates the U.S. variables, which are strongly correlated with domestic M&A activity, to enhance its predictive power. This aligns with broader North American trends, as both Canada and the U.S. reflect similar mid-range stability amid improving market conditions.

Green Shoots M&A Index (Canada and U.S.)

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"We're seeing early signs of recovery in Canada's M&A market, with our index registering 44 out of 100, placing it at the 'Sprout' level. Our models are forecasting a moderate uptick in activity, driven by improving domestic credit conditions and influence of U.S. deals," said Rob Hong, co-founder & CEO of Sapling Financial Consultants. "Deal flow doesn't happen in isolation. Our analysis is guided by U.S. M&A deal volumes, which remain the most reliable indicator when forecasting Canadian market activity."

The Green Shoots M&A Index is a reference tool for investors, corporate strategists and advisory professionals offering an overview of sentiment trends based on historical and projected M&A deal data. The index can provide insights into how the market may respond in a rapidly evolving transaction landscape. The Green Shoots M&A Index will be released on a monthly basis.

Click here to download the Green Shoots M&A Index

For interview requests, contact: [email protected].

About Sapling Financial Consultants
Founded in 2015 by Rob Hong and Andreea Lupascu in Toronto, Sapling Financial Consultants is a financial modelling, due diligence and data analytics firm that combines technological innovation with financial comprehension. Sapling was named one of Canada's Top Growing Companies by The Globe and Mail's Report on Business Magazine in 2024 and awarded a 2023 CanadianSME Small Business Awards for Best Professional Services. Committed to excellence in their craft and empowering mid-sized businesses, the firm champions affordable, high-calibre financial and analytical solutions, providing the tools for sustained growth and strategic advantage in a dynamic market landscape. For more information about Sapling Financial Consultants, visit www.saplingfinancial.com.

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