Forecasting Lithium Prices Until 2026

2 min read | December 18, 2023 05:44 PM AEDT | By Team Kalkine Media

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ASX lithium stocks experienced a notable upswing recently, prompting speculation about a potential end to the battery material price downturn. However, Goldman Sachs has conducted a thorough review of lithium prices, shedding light on the sector's future and the outlook for key players such as Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO), Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR), and Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS). This analysis delves into Goldman's lithium price forecast and its implications for the ASX lithium industry.

Lithium Price Overview:

Recent lithium spot prices exhibit a mixed landscape:

Lithium carbonate – China: US$13,009 per tonne (previous week: US$14,655)
Lithium hydroxide – China: US$12,511 per tonne (previous week: US$12,553)
Spodumene 6%: US$1,380 per tonne (unchanged from the previous week)

Goldman Sachs' Lithium Price Forecast:

Spot Prices:

Lithium Carbonate – China:

2024: US$13,377 per tonne
2025: US$11,000 per tonne
2026: US$16,883 per tonne

Lithium Hydroxide – China:

2024: US$14,263 per tonne
2025: US$12,500 per tonne
2026: US$18,571 per tonne

Spodumene 6%:

2024: US$1,250 per tonne
2025: US$800 per tonne

2026: US$1,126 per tonne

Long-Term Price Expectations:

Lithium Carbonate: US$15,000 per tonne
Lithium Hydroxide: US$16,500 per tonne
Spodumene 6%: US$1,000 per tonne

Goldman's Perspective:

While recognizing the inherent challenges in predicting commodity prices, Goldman Sachs asserts that its lithium price projections align with its long-term expectations. The bank's credibility in accurately forecasting lithium trends adds weight to its outlook.

Conclusion:

Goldman Sachs' insights suggest that the recent surge in ASX lithium stocks might not signify an imminent recovery in lithium prices. Market participants, including Core Lithium Ltd, Liontown Resources Ltd, and Pilbara Minerals Ltd, could face ongoing uncertainties as lithium prices continue to exhibit volatility. Investors are advised to closely monitor market dynamics and heed Goldman's forecasts as they navigate the evolving landscape of ASX lithium stocks.

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