ASX 200 Eyes Softer Open as Auto Tariff Tensions and Record Gold Price Shape Market Mood

Highlights:

• Trump’s 25% auto tariffs dampen global risk sentiment and trigger sharp pullback in US markets
• Gold price surges to an all-time high of US$3,059, with copper reversing from recent record highs
• Insider trades stir local interest, while ASX 200 futures point to a modest early decline

The Australian sharemarket is positioned for a softer start, with ASX 200 futures down 8 points or 0.10% as of 8:30 am AEDT. This follows a sharp risk-off tone across global markets after former US President Donald Trump announced sweeping new auto tariffs. A 25% tariff will be applied to all vehicles not manufactured in the United States, with the policy flagged as permanent. The announcement has disrupted market sentiment, dragged down global equities, and introduced fresh uncertainties across automotive supply chains and global trade flows.

US indices were unable to sustain initial gains and ended Thursday's session near their worst levels. Investor concerns grew around the broad implications of the auto tariffs, with heightened sensitivity in sectors closely tied to global trade and industrial production. Major indices fell as traders processed the potential downstream effects of cost pressures on both new and used vehicle markets. Analysts indicated that the tariffs could lift the cost of new cars by as much as US$10,000, while used vehicle prices may rise between 9% and 12% in the near term. The potential inflationary impact and geopolitical ripple effects were immediate, pushing traders to reposition portfolios accordingly.

In commodities, gold surged to a fresh all-time high of US$3,059 per ounce, fueled by safe-haven buying amid rising geopolitical tensions and trade war fears. The rally lifted the Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX) by 2.44%, breaching its August 2020 peak and reaching its highest point since January 2013. The surge in gold prices may spark renewed interest in local ASX-listed gold miners such as Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX:NST), Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX:EVN), and Bellevue Gold Ltd (ASX:BGL), particularly as volatility persists.

Copper, which had touched a record close of nearly US$5.40 per pound earlier in the week, reversed sharply as traders reassessed demand prospects in light of the US tariff measures. Hedge funds have reportedly increased their positions in cyclical stocks, taking advantage of the recent rotation while remaining wary of ongoing macroeconomic risks.

Company-specific news also shaped investor outlook. Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) is expected to be among the least affected by the auto tariffs due to its substantial domestic manufacturing footprint. In contrast, Ferrari NV (NYSE:RACE) announced plans to increase US prices by up to 10% to absorb the tariff impact.

In the technology sector, CoreWeave once again cut its IPO valuation, now targeting a listing at US$1.5 billion, down from its initial US$4 billion. The company brought in Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) as an anchor investor amid tepid capital markets. Separately, Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) has scrapped additional data center projects in the United States and Europe, citing oversupply of computing clusters linked to artificial intelligence infrastructure.

This news triggered a significant decline in ASX-listed data centre operator NextDC Ltd (ASX:NXT), which dropped 6.5% on Thursday, closing at its lowest point since November 2023. The stock has now fallen 20% year-to-date, with the pullback exacerbated by concerns about overcapacity and commentary from Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) about a potential bubble forming in the data centre sector.

On the economic front, China’s industrial profits for the first two months of 2025 contracted by 0.3%, missing expectations for a 9% increase. The data reflects fragility within China’s economy, with continued deflationary pressures and the growing impact of global trade disruptions. Central banks responded cautiously to the latest developments, with the European Central Bank maintaining steady policy, while Norway delayed its first rate cut of the cycle. The St. Louis Federal Reserve noted that tariffs could prolong the current rate pause.

On the geopolitical stage, global leaders responded to the US announcement with concern. Canada and Japan are preparing formal responses, while European nations, especially Slovakia, which has a heavily auto-dependent economy, are seen as particularly vulnerable to the new policy. China’s President Xi Jinping is reportedly engaging with executives from BMW AG (ETR:BMW), Mercedes-Benz Group AG (ETR:MBG), and Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ:QCOM) to discuss foreign investment and trade relations amid escalating tensions.

Back on the ASX, several insider trades attracted attention. Vickki McFadden, Chair of GPT Group (ASX:GPT), purchased 25,000 shares, increasing her beneficial holding to approximately 138,000 shares. At Southern Cross Media Group Ltd (ASX:SXL), Chairman Heith Mackay-Cruise acquired 74,000 shares, bringing his total to around 194,000, while CEO John Kelly bought 76,900 shares, raising his ownership to 338,000 shares.

Bellevue Gold Ltd (ASX:BGL) is under scrutiny as it may seek to raise equity amid an anticipated downgrade to its production guidance. Meanwhile, The Star Entertainment Group Ltd’s (ASX:SGR) Gold Coast casino licence decision has been deferred until 30 September, prolonging regulatory uncertainty for the gaming operator.

Markets remain choppy and in what some analysts describe as “no man’s land,” with major indices bouncing off lows but still trading in a downtrend following a ~10% drawdown. Investors await further clarity from economic data and corporate earnings before committing to a definitive direction.

As the gold market continues to show strength and global equity markets react to shifting trade policies, ASX participants will be closely monitoring both domestic and international developments. Companies exposed to international trade flows, raw materials, and interest rate sensitivity are likely to remain under scrutiny amid an increasingly complex macroeconomic backdrop.