Why Is the ASX 200 (ASX:XJO) Set to Rise After Softer US Inflation? (15 July 2026)

Highlights

• Australian shares are expected to open higher after softer-than-expected US inflation boosted global equity markets.
• Technology stocks led Wall Street gains despite IBM posting its largest one-day share price decline on record.
• Stronger commodity prices and easing bond yields could support Australian resource stocks during today's session.

Australian shares are expected to begin Wednesday's session on a firmer footing after cooler US inflation data lifted investor sentiment and reduced expectations of near-term interest rate increases. Wall Street's technology sector rebounded, while commodity prices strengthened as bond yields and the US dollar eased. Against this backdrop, the ASX 200 is expected to receive support from improving global risk appetite, with ASX Gold Stocks likely to attract attention following overnight gains across precious metals and broader mining equities.

Why are Australian shares expected to open higher?

Australian market futures indicate a stronger opening after US inflation figures came in below market expectations.

The softer inflation reading reduced concerns that the US Federal Reserve may need to tighten monetary policy further, supporting equity markets and lifting demand for growth-oriented sectors.

Technology companies led Wall Street higher, while lower bond yields improved sentiment across resource and commodity-linked businesses.

How did Wall Street perform overnight?

Major US indices closed higher after investors welcomed signs that inflationary pressures continue to moderate.

Technology and communication services led sector gains, supported by a rebound across semiconductor companies after recent weakness.

Although broader market participation remained mixed, easing inflation expectations helped improve overall market confidence.

Why did inflation data boost market sentiment?

US consumer price data showed inflation slowing more than expected, reinforcing expectations that interest rates may remain steady in the near term.

Lower inflation generally reduces pressure on central banks to increase borrowing costs, supporting economic growth and improving equity market sentiment.

The latest figures also contributed to declines in government bond yields and the US dollar.

Why did IBM shares fall sharply?

IBM experienced one of its largest single-day share price declines after issuing weaker-than-expected revenue guidance ahead of its quarterly results.

The company highlighted slowing discretionary technology spending and increasing cybersecurity challenges affecting corporate customers.

Despite IBM's weakness, several cybersecurity companies recorded strong gains as investors anticipated continued demand for digital security solutions.

Why did semiconductor stocks rebound?

Semiconductor companies recovered following heavy selling earlier in the week.

Leading chipmakers benefited from improving investor sentiment after the inflation report eased concerns surrounding interest rates.

The rebound also reflected continuing optimism surrounding long-term demand linked to artificial intelligence infrastructure and advanced computing technologies.

How did commodities perform overnight?

Commodity markets broadly strengthened following the softer inflation report.

Lower bond yields and a weaker US dollar provided support for:

• Gold.
• Copper.
• Lithium-related equities.
• Uranium companies.
• Strategic metals.

Improving commodity sentiment may provide positive leads for Australian mining companies during today's session.

What is happening in global energy markets?

Oil prices remained elevated as geopolitical tensions surrounding the Middle East continued influencing global energy markets.

Although proposals relating to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz changed during the session, military activity involving Iran continued supporting crude oil prices.

Higher energy prices remain an important consideration for inflation expectations and broader market sentiment.

Which ASX companies could be in focus today?

Several Australian-listed companies released notable announcements before the market open.

Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) reported stronger copper production alongside improved lithium output and updated operating cost guidance.

Predictive Discovery (ASX:PDI) announced an investment in Awal Resources, increasing its strategic shareholding.

Alcoa (ASX:AAI) confirmed plans to develop a gallium production facility in Western Australia to support critical minerals supply chains.

Experience Co (ASX:EXP) announced plans to divest its skydive business while retaining an interest in a new aviation tourism venture.

Vulcan Energy Resources (ASX:VUL) also reported progress on funding arrangements supporting its Lionheart project.

Which sectors could lead today's session?

Materials

Higher gold, copper and lithium prices may provide support for mining companies.

Technology

Improved global technology sentiment following the inflation report could benefit local growth stocks.

Energy

Oil producers may remain supported as crude prices continue trading near recent highs.

Financials

Lower bond yields and easing interest-rate expectations may influence banking stocks.

Gold

Gold producers may attract attention following overnight gains in bullion prices.

What economic events should investors watch today?

Several important economic releases remain scheduled.

Investors will monitor:

• China's GDP data.
• Chinese industrial production.
• Chinese retail sales.
• US Producer Price Index.
• Bank of Canada's interest-rate decision.

These releases could influence commodity markets, global growth expectations and broader investor sentiment.

What should investors watch next?

Market participants are expected to focus on:

• Commodity price movements.
• US inflation and interest-rate expectations.
• China's economic data.
• Corporate production updates.
• Technology sector performance.
• Developments across global energy markets.

These factors are likely to influence Australian equities throughout the trading session.

Australian shares are positioned for a stronger opening as softer US inflation improves global market sentiment and supports technology and resource sectors.

While IBM's earnings warning weighed on parts of the technology sector, broader optimism surrounding easing inflation, stronger commodity prices and lower bond yields helped lift global equities.

Commodity markets, Chinese economic data and ongoing geopolitical developments are expected to remain important drivers for Australian investors throughout the session.