ASX200 Resilience, Retail Sales Pulse, and US Job Concerns

June 30, 2025 11:20 AM AEST | By Team Kalkine Media

ASX200 Resilience, Retail Sales Pulse, and US Job Concerns — Image source: Shutterstock

Global Market Momentum

After a week marked by rising global tensions, investor confidence held firm, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching record highs. Closer to home, the ASX200 also saw strength, showcasing resilience amid uncertain macroeconomic cues. Notably, over US$165 billion has flowed into US equity funds in 2025 to date — signaling an appetite for risk despite looming events like Q2 earnings, the upcoming ASX reporting season, and tariff policy risks.

One of the most closely watched corporate updates this week will be Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) second-quarter vehicle deliveries. With the company's share price down about 15% year-to-date, this release is anticipated to set the tone for broader tech and growth equity sentiment. A strong delivery figure could help stabilize momentum, while a shortfall might add pressure amid already muted growth forecasts. Analysts expect S&P500 earnings to rise just 2.8% in Q2 — the softest pace in two years.

Australian Retail Sales Watch

On Wednesday, Australia will release its final retail sales data for the 2025 financial year. Despite signs of macroeconomic improvement — including falling CPI and upbeat employment figures — consumer spending has remained fragile. Markets are penciling in a 0.3% month-on-month improvement for June, and the outcome will offer critical insights into end-of-financial-year trends and household sentiment.

If the data comes in stronger than expected, it may reinforce confidence around a July rate cut and support ongoing optimism around Australia's economic trajectory.

US Labour Market Trends

Across the Pacific, US job market data remains a key piece of the macroeconomic puzzle. Weekly jobless claims have started to decline, yet job creation appears to be tapering off. Economists anticipate June’s unemployment rate will edge higher to 4.3% — the highest in 12 months. Of concern is that among recent college graduates, the rate spiked to a 13-year high of 5.8% in March.

This trend raises broader questions about how structural shifts — such as AI disruption and shifting industrial policies — might influence employment over the longer term. With presidential policy increasingly focused on “Made in America” initiatives, tangible outcomes remain to be seen.

As investors look to close out the financial year with direction, this week’s data may prove decisive for both local equities and broader global risk appetite.

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