ASX 200 Set for Positive Start Amid Global Market Shifts

Highlights: 

• ASX 200 futures indicate a strong start following last week’s losses. 
• Global markets witness volatility amid trade tensions and economic policy shifts. 
• Key economic data and corporate updates to drive investor sentiment

ASX 200 futures are pointing to a positive start, rising 69 points (+0.86%) as of 8:30 am AEDT. The local share market looks set to rebound following a challenging session last week that saw a 146-point decline. A relief rally appears to be in play, driven by stabilizing investor sentiment and anticipated economic data releases. 

Overnight Market Performance 

US markets closed higher in a volatile session on Friday, with major indices finishing off their peak levels. The Nasdaq slipped into correction territory amid concerns surrounding tariffs and a global bond selloff. Sectoral weakness in cyclicals and small caps suggested a potential shift in economic sentiment, with recession fears resurfacing. Investor focus continues to shift toward Europe and China, with Germany’s fiscal stimulus reshaping the Eurozone’s economic outlook and influencing bond yield expectations. 

• Nasdaq fell amid tariff concerns and global bond volatility. 

• US cyclicals and small caps showed weakness, signaling recession concerns. 

• Global investor focus transitions from Japan to Europe and China. 

• Germany’s stimulus package alters Eurozone rate outlook. 

• China’s bond yields surge as doubts over rate cuts mount. 

• JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) lowers emerging market sovereign debt ratings over valuation concerns. 

Stock Market Developments 

Key corporate movements have influenced global markets, with technology and retail stocks under focus. 

• Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) exceeded revenue expectations, citing AI infrastructure growth. 

• Hewlett-Packard Enterprise Co. (NYSE:HPE) provided a cautious profit outlook due to cost pressures. 

• Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) reported declining sales and brand challenges as its CEO faces increased political scrutiny. 

• Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (NASDAQ:WBA) finalized a $23.7 billion buyout deal with Sycamore Partners, marking the end of its public market presence. 

• Insignia Financial Ltd (ASX:IFL) granted due diligence access to Bain Capital and CC Capital following competitive buyout bids. 

• Volkswagen AG (ETR:VOW3) may avoid US tariffs, while BMW (ETR:BMW) and others face uncertainty. 

• Bayer AG (ETR:BAYN) explores exiting its Roundup business due to legal risks in the US. 

Geopolitical and Trade Updates 

Geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on global trade policy, with several key developments impacting markets. 

• China announced retaliatory tariffs on select Canadian imports as trade disputes escalate. 

• Former US President Donald Trump adjusted trade measures in response to market volatility. 

• Mexico's administration is reviewing tariffs on Chinese goods following US recommendations. 

• Tariffs continue to pressure Chinese exporters facing tighter margins. 

• The US is set to impose new fees on China-linked shipping firms, urging allies to follow suit. 

• Ukraine and the US are set to initiate peace talks in Saudi Arabia, reflecting shifting alliances. 

• European leaders discuss US trade policy implications on Ukraine and pledge additional defense support. 

• China reaffirms its strategic partnership with Russia, maintaining its global stability commitments. 

• Trump’s criticism of the US-Japan security treaty raises concerns in Tokyo. 

• Cyclone Alfred delays Australia’s federal election, pushing the likely vote date to May. 

Central Bank Policy and Economic Indicators 

Global central banks are maneuvering through uncertain economic conditions, impacting rate expectations and liquidity measures. 

• US Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller suggested 2-3 rate cuts may be feasible in 2025, dismissing tariff-related inflation risks. 

• Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic expects policy clarity to take months, with rates likely to remain steady through spring. 

• European Central Bank (ECB) announced a rate cut but hinted at a possible pause in the easing cycle. 

• People’s Bank of China (PBOC) may increase liquidity measures without undermining yuan stability. 

Economic data remained mixed, with the US labor market showing some signs of cooling. 

• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated the US economy remains stable, with February payroll data falling slightly short of expectations. Wage growth aligned with forecasts, while unemployment increased slightly. 

• Japan appears poised to declare an end to its prolonged deflationary period as economic indicators turn positive. 

• China recorded a decline in exports and contracting imports, as new US tariffs took effect. 

ASX Market Movements and Corporate Updates 

The ASX 200 faces key corporate developments influencing sectoral movements. 

• Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX:RIO) has reportedly scrapped plans for a $5 billion share offering following investor feedback. 

• The Star Entertainment Group Ltd (ASX:SGR) secured a A$250 million bridge facility from King Street Capital Management. 

• McPherson’s Ltd (ASX:MCP) entered a three-year pharmacy wholesale agreement with Sigma Healthcare Ltd (ASX:SIG), effective May 1. 

• GQG Partners Inc. (ASX:GQG) reported February-end funds under management (FUM) at $160.5 billion, a marginal increase from the previous month. 

• St Barbara Ltd (ASX:SBM) provided production guidance of 32.5-42.5Koz for H2 at an ASIC of A$3,400-3,800/oz, with a lower full-year production outlook. 

• Ramsay Health Care Ltd (ASX:RHC) and Healthscope continue lobbying insurers to increase their hospital-related premium allocations. 

• Scentre Group (ASX:SCG) is advancing rezoning approvals to construct residential properties within two Westfield shopping centres in New South Wales. 

Market Trends to Watch Today 

• ASX 200’s ability to reclaim the key 8000 level after last week's dip. 

• Former US President Donald Trump’s recent comments on a potential recession and its implications for equity markets. 

• Oil-related stocks under pressure following the seventh consecutive weekly loss in crude prices. 

• Iron ore producers in focus amid potential steel production cuts in China.