ASX 200 Futures Steady, S&P 500 Hits Record Close as Earnings Season Unfolds

Highlights:

• S&P 500 Records a New High – The index closed at a record level following a late-session rally, with resource and value stocks leading the gains. 
• Investor Sentiment Reaches Multi-Year Highs – Bank of America's Global Fund Manager Survey reveals the most risk-on positioning in 15 years, with cash levels at their lowest since 2010. 
• ASX Earnings Reports Flood In – Major results from Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN), Goodman Group (ASX:GMG), Corporate Travel Management (ASX:CTD), Santos (ASX:STO), and Cleanaway (ASX:CWY) highlight the latest financial trends. 

US equities finished higher, driven by strong corporate earnings and late-session buying activity. The S&P 500 closed at a record high, supported by gains in resource stocks and value-oriented sectors, while the equal-weight S&P outperformed by 53 basis points. The earnings season continued to boost sentiment, with the blended growth rate for the index reaching 16.9% as over three-quarters of companies reported results. Earnings expansion, a broadening of profits beyond the leading technology firms, and favorable margins have been key drivers, although some caution remains due to softer forward guidance and political uncertainty. 

Investor sentiment remains bullish, as reflected in Bank of America's latest Global Fund Manager Survey. Cash holdings have declined to 3.5%, the lowest level since 2010, while net overweight equity positioning has increased to 35%. Despite this optimism, a growing number of investors view US equities as overvalued, with 89% expressing concerns about high valuations—the most since April 2001. Global trade tensions and economic policy shifts remain top risks for investors, with geopolitical developments adding further complexity. 

China's bond market witnessed significant movements, with 10-year yields rising by the most since October amid tight funding conditions. In corporate earnings, Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) reported Q4 revenue above estimates, though AI Cloud growth was offset by other segment losses. Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) rallied after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a $1.2 billion stake, while Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) continues its supply chain diversification efforts by expanding operations in India. 

Central banks remain in focus, with the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting rates for the first time since 2020 but signaling a cautious approach to further easing. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated a potential pause in rate cuts while keeping open the possibility of resuming easing later this year. European Central Bank officials remain divided on policy direction, with discussions around a potential rate cut in March becoming more challenging. 

Geopolitical developments added another layer of complexity to markets. The US and Russia are set to hold discussions on Ukraine in Saudi Arabia without the participation of Kyiv or European representatives. Former US President Donald Trump has called for a $500 billion reimbursement from Ukraine in exchange for continued support. Meanwhile, South Korea is considering record trade policy financing worth $249.3 billion to support exporters amid rising tariff concerns. India remains committed to reducing import duties in response to escalating US trade tensions. 

On the economic front, Canada's core inflation accelerated to 2.1% in January, up from 1.8% in December, while Germany's ZEW investor confidence index posted its largest improvement in two years ahead of national elections. 

The ASX earnings season continues with a series of high-profile results. Cleanaway (ASX:CWY) posted a 1H25 net profit of US$94 million, reflecting a 13% increase, with an interim dividend up 14% to 2.8 cents per share. Corporate Travel Management (ASX:CTD) reported a 23% decline in underlying EBITDA to $77.4 million, while its interim dividend dropped by 41% to 10 cents per share, though new client wins reached $880 million in total transaction value. Fletcher Building (ASX:FBU) posted a $134 million net loss, reflecting ongoing challenges in its residential construction segment, while Goodman Group (ASX:GMG) announced a $4 billion capital raise, with 1H25 operating profit rising 8% to $1.22 billion, reaffirming its 9% full-year earnings per share growth guidance. 

Iluka Resources (ASX:ILU) posted a 33% drop in full-year net profit to $231 million, declaring a 4-cent per share final dividend. IperionX (ASX:IPX) secured $47.1 million from the US Department of Defense to strengthen titanium supply chains, fast-tracking its Tennessee-based Titan Project. James Hardie (ASX:JHX) reported Q3 net income of $154 million, down 15% from the prior year, but maintained its second-half and full-year guidance. 

In the financial sector, National Australia Bank (ASX:NAB) reported first-quarter unaudited cash net profit after tax of $1.74 billion, with a small decline in net interest margins. 

In corporate M&A, Light & Wonder (NASDAQ:LNW) acquired Grover Gaming’s charitable gaming assets for $850 million, with potential earn-outs of up to $200 million, valuing the deal at 7.7x EBITDA, with expectations of strong earnings accretion. Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN) posted a 1H25 net profit after tax loss of $196 million, including a $807 million statutory loss due to $352 million in post-tax impairment charges related to the Bald Hill operation. The company also revised its Onslow Iron project production outlook to 8.8–9.3 million tonnes, down from a previous estimate of 10.5–11.7 million tonnes. 

Star Entertainment (ASX:SGR) rejected a second informal takeover proposal from its largest shareholder, Bruce Mathieson, for its Gold Coast property. Meanwhile, Westgold Resources (ASX:WGX) is in advanced talks to sell its Lakewood Mill gold processing facility. 

Markets are set for another volatile session with key corporate earnings releases and macroeconomic data. The breadth of market performance remained strong overnight, with sectors such as gold, energy, and select technology names showing relative strength. While no standout beats or misses emerged from the ASX earnings season so far, Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN)'s results have drawn significant attention due to its impairment-driven losses. 

Investors continue to monitor developments in monetary policy, corporate earnings, and global trade tensions as risk sentiment remains elevated.