Summary

• The Bank of England (BoE) has raised doubts over the UK Prime Minister’s campaign to get the workers back to office.
• Alex Brazier, the apex bank’s ED, stated that the government’s campaign would be tainted due to the health advisory and guidelines issued to check the spread of the coronavirus infections.
• The government’s drive holds significance as the business activities in the city centres have fallen considerably as compared to the pre-pandemic levels.
• The PM’s campaign to encourage people to return to their workplaces, initially scheduled to begin in the first week of September 2020, could be delayed and might begin next week at the earliest.

The Bank of England (BoE) has raised qualms over the UK Prime Minister’s campaign to get the workers back to office. Cautioning that mass return of the Britons to UK offices does not look possible, Alex Brazier, the apex bank’s executive director (ED) for financial stability strategy and risk stated that the government’s campaign would be tainted due to the health advisory and guidelines issued to check the spread of the coronavirus infections.

The comments from the Bank of England’s senior official came at a time when Boris Johnson, the UK’s PM is putting efforts to get more Britishers back to their office in the country. The government’s drive to make people restart working from offices holds significanceas the business activities in the city centres have fallen considerably as compared to the pre-pandemic levels. The loss in trading for the businesses that depend mostly on office going crowd is a potential threat to the prospects of the businesses and livelihoods of the workers employed with them.

The PM’s campaign to encourage people to return to their workplaces, initially scheduled to begin in the first week of September 2020 could be delayed and is likely to begin next week at the earliest. The government’s social distancing guidelines have prohibited the companies and businesses from calling the entire workforce return to office. The cabinet office would desire to see more diplomats return to their workplaces before the government starts telling the Britishers to follow the same. The government is yet to finalise a slogan for the campaign amid the differences among ministers on how strong the message needs to be.

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Brazier felt that it seems difficult for the staff in large numbers to rejoin their offices this autumn atcentral London and city centres in other big cities across Britain amid the risk of catching infections, coronavirus safety guidelines, and transport capacity issues. Given the coronavirus safety norms of social distancing, it does not seem feasible to use office spaces in crowded and dense places like central London with the same intensity as in pre-pandemic times. This suggested that the firms were missing out on the several benefits of office working, including efficiency, collaboration, and creativity. Brazier stressed that it would be impossible to suddenly bring back lots of people to the workplace.

The ED at BoE, who is also in charge of regulating some of the London’s biggest employers, talked to the members of parliament (MPs) on the Commons Treasury committee and observed that it would take several months for the companies to bring back their employees at office. The likelihood of more staff restarting work from office in coming times would depend largely on the risk of catching a Covid-19 infection.The bank official pointed out that the country should expect a phase wise return based on the results of public health that would be seen in coming weeks and months. Brazier, who personally felt safe to return to offices in the city, emphasised that he understood why many people might not feel the same.

It is to be noted that four of the apex bank’s five witnesses speaking before the Treasury committee that comprised of the BoE’s governor, Andrew Bailey, appeared through video link from its London headquarters. Bailey feared that there is a significantly higher threat to the UK’s economic recovery due to theuncertainty over the fallout of the coronavirus pandemic in winter and growing unemployment numbers.

Talking about the inflation, BoE’s governor stated that he no longer expected inflation to turn negative. In July 2020, inflation unexpectedly increased after the lockdown restrictions were lifted and the economy restarted to open up. Nonetheless, Bailey cautioned the downside risks to jobs and growth, suggesting that the apex bank would take more time than usual to react to positive economic news.

Citing another reason for people not returning to their workplaces, Colette Bowe, a member of the BoE’s financial policy committee, observed that reopening of schools for children was a major issue in getting the employees back to offices. Parents are worried if their children and their educational needs are being properly cared for.

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Some noteworthy statistics around returning to office

The latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) has mentioned that around 39 per cent of the UK workforce is continuing to work from home. Different industries have shown different numbers. While three-quarters of IT and professional workers, who generally constitute occupancy at city centre offices, have continued to work remotely, one fifth of the employees from construction and manufacturing segments worked from home. In health and social care sector, about 14 per cent of the staff is yet to rejoin their workplaces. The government has eased the lockdown measures and encouraged the companies to bring the staff back to offices.

As per industry sources, on 1 September 2020, the number of people traveling by train were only 38 per cent as compared to pre-pandemic levels, up from 31 per cent recorded in end-August. The Tube travel in London rose by 2.2 per cent on the first day of September as compared to last week of August 2020. This slight rise in Tube travel was 67 per cent lower than last year’s levels. Commuting by bus increased by 8 per cent, 45 per cent down from 2019.

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Buzz in the political corridors regarding the PM's campaign

Despite schools reopening and children returning to school from September 2020, most Whitehall buildings were lower in capacities, making the government wary of launching the campaign as it first needs to put its own house in order. The PM wants to send out a clear and powerful message to the Britons that the Britons need to return to the workplace now. Given the recent spike in infection rates, some aides are requesting for being cautious. However, Boris Johnson was annoyed with colleagues who are still working from home. Johnson stressed that the Britishers would like to see all the members of parliament (MPs) back in the Parliament and requested the Labour MPs to join him in advocating that it is safe to go back to work in a Covid-19 secure manner. He also told the Tory MPs that he wanted Parliament to returnto normalcy by Christmas 2020.

The cabinet office has sent communication to Whitehall departments and requested to know the number of staff who returned to their desks, reasons behind lesser numbers, and plans from ministers and officials to increase the numbers. Undermining the back to work message in last week of August 2020, Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, said that he gave importance to people’s effectiveness in the work that they do instead of where they worked from.

On the other hand, some ministers feared the shift towards working from home is leading the country to an unemployment crisis. They opined that it was crucial that the staff starts working from office, particularly in the city of London and other city centres across the UK, to save the essential businesses like restaurants, pubs, restaurants, and others that depend on the business coming from office employees. In any adverse situation, these businesses might be soon forced to shut shops. Some ministers viewed that it would not affect people if any of these businesses shut their operations, however huge unemployment would surely impact everyone.

According to sources from the Whitehall, the PM’s campaign might not have a slogan, raising worries that in absence of a clear message, the campaign would lead to confusion. There were strong oppositions from the unions representing civil servants regarding getting people back to offices. While many companies havetold their employees not to return to the office until 2021, others have taken measures to make offices safe by putting restrictions on the number of workers who could attend office at a given point in time.

Conclusion

In the ongoing fight against the coronavirus pandemic, public health and safety measures are undeniably important. Many health experts are continuously advising on social distancing norms, besides effecting Covid-19 testing facilities to curb the spread of the infection. However, given the economic crisis that the pandemic has brought, it is important to balance life and livelihoods. The PM’s campaign to bring the employees back to offices in a Covid-19 secure way is a step in this direction, thereby helping the small businesses and public transport survive and sustain themselves. Many experts believe that the work from home systems may not be viable in the long-term but getting a large number of staff to rejoin office also does not seem possible in present times when the risk of catching the infection is still high.