Could Rising Costs and Global Trade Strains Erode UK Consumer Confidence?

April 25, 2025 01:30 PM BST | By Team Kalkine Media
 Could Rising Costs and Global Trade Strains Erode UK Consumer Confidence?
Image source: shutterstock

Highlights

  • Consumer Confidence Index falls by four points, marking the lowest reading in over a year

  • Household budgets squeezed by annual increases in council levies, utility charges and motoring fees

  • Global trade tensions and tariff moves weigh on inflation expectations and spending outlook

The financial sector reflects the pulse of economic sentiment, with consumer confidence serving as a key indicator of household willingness to spend. Recent survey results from GfK reveal a marked decline in sentiment among UK households, underscoring the influence of domestic cost pressures and international trade dynamics.

Consumer Sentiment Decline

The Consumer Confidence Index recorded a drop by four points to reach negative twenty-three in April. That result represents the weakest reading since the same month of the previous year. The shift captures growing unease about future economic conditions and personal finances, affecting perceptions of affordability and willingness to commit to both essential and discretionary purchases.

Household Budget Pressures

Annual rises in council levies, energy tariffs and vehicle taxes have contributed to tighter household finances. Those regular increases, scheduled in April alongside new utility-charging rates, have placed upward strain on essential expenditure. As routine bills climb, spare income available for leisure and non-essential items diminishes, reinforcing concerns about ongoing cost-of-living impacts.

Global Trade and Inflation Dynamics

Heightened trade tensions, particularly related to recent tariff adjustments by a major trading partner, have the potential to influence import costs and domestic price levels. While headline inflation eased from its previous peaks, moderating to approximately two point six percent, market commentary points to an expected uptick in inflation by mid-year. Such shifts could further erode purchasing power and weigh on confidence.

Expectations for Personal Finances

Expectations about household finances over the coming year also weakened, with that sub-index sliding by four points to negative three. Consumers anticipate further fluctuations in income and outlays, reflecting uncertainty over wage growth in relation to rising expenses. That outlook may dampen spending on durable goods and lower-priority services, influencing broader economic activity.

Broader Economic Implications

Consumer sentiment serves as a bellwether for retail revenues and services demand. As confidence wanes, sectors reliant on discretionary spending—such as hospitality, leisure and home improvement—may experience softer trading conditions. Policymakers and business leaders will monitor these confidence trends closely, as shifts in consumer attitudes can translate into changes in economic momentum.


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