FTSE 100 hits record high as interest rate cut hopes fuel rally

The FTSE 100 index surged to a record high of 8,480.57 points in early trading, surpassing its previous peak of 8,474 points set in May 2024.

A three-day rally, bolstered by unexpectedly low UK inflation figures and optimism surrounding potential interest rate cuts, has invigorated London’s stock market.

This morning’s disappointing retail sales data, combined with weaker-than-expected economic growth figures released on Thursday, have further fuelled expectations that the Bank of England may ease monetary policy this year.

Markets are now pricing in between two and three interest rate cuts, a significant shift from just last week when fewer than two cuts were anticipated.

The pound has weakened in response, a development that benefits multinational companies listed in London by boosting the value of their foreign earnings.

Merger talks between Glencore and Rio Tinto lift markets with rising shares

London’s mining sector was a standout performer, as shares in Glencore and Rio Tinto rallied on reports of early-stage discussions about a potential combination.

The Financial Times and Bloomberg both reported that the two mining giants held “early stage” talks about a possible combination last year.

Glencore’s shares rose 3% in morning trading, while Rio Tinto gained 1.5%.

A merger between the two companies would represent the largest deal in mining history but is likely to encounter significant challenges. Bloomberg noted,

While Glencore has large copper assets at a time when the world’s biggest producers are all seeking to expand in the metal crucial to the energy transition, it also owns a massive coal business that would likely be unattractive to Rio.

“The larger miner’s chief executive has repeatedly expressed wariness about mega deals, and the two companies have vastly different cultures, “it said.

The reported talks follow a wave of strategic reviews in the mining sector after BHP’s failed £39 billion bid for Anglo American last year.

Retail sales slump raises questions over consumer confidence

Retail sales volumes in Great Britain dipped by 0.3% in December, missing forecasts of a 0.4% increase.

The decline underscores a cautious approach by consumers during the holiday season, despite reports of strong Christmas trading by major retailers like Tesco, which claimed its biggest Christmas ever.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) noted that food store sales volumes fell by 1.9%, dragging down the overall retail performance.

This drop was partially offset by growth in non-food categories such as clothing and household goods.

Hannah Finselbach, a senior statistician at the ONS, commented:

Retail sales fell in December following last month’s slight increase. This was driven by a very poor month for food sales, which sank to their lowest level since 2013, with supermarkets particularly affected.

Over the three months to December, retail sales volumes fell by 0.8% compared to the previous quarter, indicating weaker consumer spending toward the end of the year.

Surveys have pointed to declining consumer confidence, likely influenced by economic uncertainty.

However, the timing of Black Friday complicated the seasonal adjustment of the data.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, retail sales volumes rose by 10% in December, reflecting strong overall activity during the festive season.

Global markets buoyed by Trump tariff speculation

The FTSE 100 rally mirrors broader optimism in global markets, driven by reports that US President Donald Trump may adopt a more measured approach to implementing tariffs.

The prospect of reduced trade tensions has lifted sentiment, particularly among export-driven sectors.

The ongoing rally highlights the interplay between monetary policy expectations, currency movements, and geopolitical developments.

As interest rate cuts loom on the horizon, investor optimism continues to bolster the market, even as weak economic indicators cast a shadow over longer-term growth prospects.

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