Coronavirus– How does the London picture differ from the rest of England?

When the Covid pandemic began across England, London was its hub and seemed to be weeks ahead of the rest of the nation. Even till a week back, the daily death rate was a big cause of worry.

But the picture looks to be changing now. On May 12, 68 people were reported to have died due to corona infection. But this toll is gradually decreasing, with 28 reported deaths on May 14, and ten on May 18. Let us look a bit closer-

London Mayor Sadiq Khan has now requested the Prime Minister that a two-week quarantine should be quickly implemented so that the rate of corona infections does not shoot up again.

The complete country picture first

Number of cases and deaths in the UK

(Source: Government Release, As of 5pm on 18 May)

As the above data shows, UK has seen close to 2.5 lakh infections and 35,000 plus deaths in total, till May 18, 2020.

(Source: Department of Health and Social Care)

As it can be seen from the above chart, the new death numbers have started to fall across the UK.

Out of the 35000 deaths, a large chunk, i.e. 5782 is from London. As, the capital city is also the economic centre of the nation. This is the reason why studying the city’s trend is important.

The London scene’s changing

The daily reported corona infections peaked in London were at 1000 cases in April this year but have started to fall consistently after April 19.

Daily corona cases detected in London

(Source: London Datastore)

More than a month and a half later, the picture has changed, the daily reported cases are much lower.

An analysis by Cambridge University and Public Health England conducted on May 15 has also revealed that the UK capital is recording only 24 cases on a daily basis. This analysis brings out that the number of new cases in London has been reducing by 50 percent every 3.5 days.

The analysis also predicts that London will have zero new cases beginning this June. However, it is yet to be seen if the numbers don’t jump back with eased lockdown restrictions and more public transport use, especially post June 1.

R, the reproduction value or the rate of transmission is a measure that calculates how many people an infected person will be transmitting the virus to. The value of 'R' is reported to have lowered itself to 0.4 in London on May 15. This number simply means that if 10 people catch the virus, they are likely to infect 4 in turn. Before the lockdown, the R rate in London was 2.8, with more than 2000 new infections being reported each day.

The corresponding number of R for England is 0.75. One of the prime conditions imposed by Boris Johnson to ease lockdown was that the value of R must go below 1.

So what about the rest of the England?

Corona cases detected across England

(Source: Public Health England, May 15, 2020)

From London, attention has now moved to the north of England, where transmission rates of Covid-19 appear to be falling at a far lower rate. While the R value has come down to 0.4 in London, it remains between 0.7 and 0.8 in South East, East of England, North West, South West, East Anglia and North East and Yorkshire, as per the Cambridge University analysis.

It is worrisome that North East and Yorkshire are turning around about 4,000 infections daily. Next is in line is the North West region, with more than 2000 infections in a day, most other regions are less than 1,500 infections. So, it is questionable if the lockdown easing should follow the same time frame across England, with varying transmission rates.

A recent World Health Organisation warning said that there is a risk of a second wave of the Corona infections if the lockdown is lifted earlier than required.

After London, the South West region has the second-lowest Corona infection rate, with 739 daily recorded cases.

Did it spread more widely in London?

Yes, at least the data points at that. In terms of sheer numbers, while a total of 6.5 million people has been infected by the Covid virus until now in England, the corresponding figure for London is around 1.8 million. Though this may not give a clear picture, but look at these stats – around 20 percent of Londoners have been infected by the virus till now, while this figure is lower at 14 percent for North West, 11 percent each for Midlands, North East and Yorkshire, 10 percent for East of England and 8 percent for Southern Eastern.

So, people in London could be having more immunity to the virus now, which may also be a reason for the fall in R value and daily infected cases.

Should the restrictions be eased regionally?

Maybe, looking at the numbers, but the larger challenge is how will such regional restrictions be imposed? It could probably add to already existing confusion about the lockdown process.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson had announced on May 13, 2020 that in Step 2 of the lockdown restrictions, starting June 1 this year, primary schools, non-essential shops and construction activity will be opened up. Public transport usage will also be allowed.

The Prime Minister’s Spokesperson has recently confirmed that the coronavirus lockdown can be eased at different rates across different regions in the UK. The Government is very cautious to continue with the social distancing measures, to control any further spread of the pandemic.

Don’t jump to any conclusions yet

Experts also warn that it may be too early to draw conclusions. Low rate of infection may have been largely associated with the lockdown measures in place, and scientists cannot find how easing of measures will affect the R rate.

Some experts also feel that looking at the larger picture; we have to learn to live with the virus for the time being. It is not likely to get completely eradicated before a year or maybe two.

Till date, there have been more than 48 lakh reported coronavirus cases across the world, spreading across 188 nations. It has led to more than 3 lakh deaths till now. Top five infected countries till date include US (15 lakh cases), Russia (3 lakh), Spain (2.7 lakh) and UK (2.4 lakh).

Finally, it cannot be denied that both the number of cases and deaths have been dropping faster in London than in other parts of England. But it remains to be seen if lessening lockdown restrictions does not reverse the good picture.