Scandium Canada Highlights Tripling Global Scandium Demand by 2035 in Latest EY-Parthenon Market Report

EY-Parthenon Study Highlights Looming Structural Scandium Supply Deficit

Scandium Canada disclosed an updated independent EY-Parthenon market study delivered in June 2026, updating a 2022 analysis. The study was commissioned to validate assumptions in the company's Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) for the Crater Lake scandium project in Nunavik, Québec, and to support due diligence for acquiring Ferreol Technologies (now Scalium+ Inc.), finalized on June 29, 2026.

The study’s key conclusion is that global scandium supply will significantly lag demand starting in 2035. This imbalance stems from scandium’s production exclusively as a byproduct of mining other metals, causing supply to be influenced by host metal economics rather than scandium demand. Chinese production currently accounts for approximately 30–50 tonnes annually, representing about 50–60% of global supply.

Demand for Scandium Oxide Set to Accelerate Through 2050

EY-Parthenon projects substantial growth in global scandium oxide demand. Present production stands at 60–80 tonnes annually. Demand is expected to reach 91 tonnes by 2030, escalating sharply to 194 tonnes by 2035. The most probable scenario forecasts demand soaring to 706 tonnes annually by 2050.

This growth is driven by scandium’s increasing use in high-strength, lightweight materials, with demand concentrated in sectors that value premium material performance, impacting supply development and downstream market dynamics.

Aerospace, Defence, and Automotive Lead Demand Expansion

The EY-Parthenon report identifies aerospace, defence, and automotive as the primary sectors fueling demand growth through 2050. Between 2030 and 2050, aerospace demand is projected to grow at a 26% CAGR, defence at 23%, and automotive at 22%. Collectively, these sectors dominate forecasted demand increases.

By 2050, annual scandium demand is projected at 243 tonnes for aerospace, 92 tonnes for defence, and 128 tonnes for automotive. This reflects industry trends favoring lightweight structural materials that enhance strength without added weight—a critical factor in aerospace and defence, and increasingly vital in automotive for improving fuel efficiency and driving range. Advanced manufacturing and energy sectors also contribute significantly, with energy demand projected at 222 tonnes annually by 2050.

Aluminum-Scandium Alloys Drive Primary Scandium Usage Growth

The study highlights aluminum-scandium (Al-Sc) alloys as the fastest-growing scandium application, surpassing demand for scandium oxide alone. Aerospace, defence, and automotive sectors primarily consume scandium as an alloying element in aluminum, underscoring where commercial value is created in the scandium supply chain.

By 2050, aluminum-scandium alloy demand is forecast at 243 tonnes for aerospace, 128 tonnes for automotive, and 92 tonnes for defence. This shift toward high-performance composite materials influences raw material needs and downstream product development.

Crater Lake Project Positioned as North America’s Primary Scandium Source

Scandium Canada’s Crater Lake project in Nunavik, Québec, is set to become North America’s sole planned primary scandium producer. Unlike current global supply, which is byproduct-based, Crater Lake is designed as a dedicated scandium extraction operation. The project targets 91 tonnes of scandium oxide production annually, based on a successful 500 kg pilot test completed in March 2025.

This production capacity aligns with EY-Parthenon’s 2030 global demand projection of 91 tonnes annually, reinforcing Crater Lake’s strategic importance amid growing demand outpacing byproduct supply. CEO Guy Bourassa commented, "Scandium is one of the few metals where projected demand grows this steeply while supply remains a byproduct of other metal production. The updated EY-Parthenon study puts independent numbers on that imbalance."

Scalium+ Advances Proprietary Aluminum-Scandium Alloy Commercialization

Through its wholly owned subsidiary Scalium+ (formerly Ferreol Technologies, acquired June 29, 2026), Scandium Canada is commercializing proprietary, patent-pending aluminum-scandium alloys and the Scalium® product line. Scalium+ markets these alloys across aerospace, defence, and advanced manufacturing sectors, including welding wire for wire arc additive manufacturing (WAAM) and 3D printing via laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) technology.

Internal testing shows certain Scalium® alloys achieving strength up to 45% higher than standard 7075 aerospace aluminum. Pending further commercial application testing and scale validation, these alloys could substitute high-strength aluminum or titanium in demanding applications. This "mine-to-alloy" strategy integrates primary scandium supply from Crater Lake with downstream alloy commercialization to establish a secure North American scandium supply chain.

Integrated Mine and Alloy Strategy Addresses Market Imbalance

Scandium Canada’s strategy tackles supply and demand challenges highlighted in the EY-Parthenon study. Crater Lake offers a dedicated primary scandium source as demand surpasses byproduct supply, while Scalium+ captures value in rapidly growing aluminum-scandium alloy applications within aerospace, defence, and automotive sectors.

CEO Bourassa stated, "We are strategically positioned on both sides of the equation, the oxide and the alloys." This approach addresses the structural supply-demand imbalance and leverages the fact that Chinese production accounts for roughly 50–60% of current supply, suggesting that a North American primary source could fulfill regional customers seeking supply chain diversification.

No Primary Scandium Producer Exists Globally as of June 2026

The EY-Parthenon study reveals that as of June 2026, no global operation produces scandium as its primary product. All existing production is byproduct from mining other metals such as uranium, aluminum, titanium, or rare earth elements. This supply structure limits responsiveness to scandium demand growth.

This creates both constraints and opportunities: supply cannot easily expand without host metal economics supporting it, but a dedicated primary producer entering the market ahead of the widening supply-demand gap could gain significant competitive advantage. Scandium Canada’s Crater Lake project would be the first dedicated primary scandium producer if brought to commercial operation.

Forward-Looking Statements and Market Risks

The EY-Parthenon projections and forecasts cited are forward-looking statements based on assumptions and estimates. Scandium Canada acknowledges these are subject to significant business, economic, and competitive uncertainties that could cause actual outcomes to differ materially. Readers are advised to review the company’s filings on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca for detailed assumptions and risk factors.

The immediate impact of this announcement on Scandium Canada’s share price was not evident from publicly available information.