SovEcon sees weaker early grain yields in southern Russia, but Stavropol offers hope

Harvesting of early grains has commenced across the southern regions of Russia, as reported by SovEcon in its latest weekly agricultural assessment.

This marks the beginning of the crucial harvest season, with initial yields and quality indicators being closely monitored by agricultural analysts and market participants. 

The southern federal districts, known for their fertile soils and favorable climate, are typically the first to begin gathering the new crop, providing an early glimpse into the overall national harvest outlook.

Moisture deficit

A moisture deficit has led to lower initial yields in Russia’s key agricultural regions compared to last year, according to SovEcon.

Early grain yields in Rostov, Russia’s primary wheat-producing region, are reported to be 2.0 tons per hectare, a decrease from last year’s 3.6 ton per hectare. 

Krasnodar’s yields are 4.5 tons per hectare, while Stavropol’s are 4.0 tons per hectare, an increase from 3.5 tons per hectare last year, according to SovEcon’s update.

The downturn in yields is primarily attributed to a substantial moisture deficit experienced during critical growth stages. Farmers in these regions have been battling drought-like conditions, leading to stunted crop development and reduced grain fill, ultimately impacting overall production.

Conversely, the agricultural landscape in Stavropol Krai presents a more optimistic picture. Here, soil moisture reserves are reported to be above normal levels, providing an ideal environment for crop development. 

The favorable moisture profile has largely shielded Stavropol from the adverse effects observed in neighboring regions, suggesting a potentially robust harvest in this area. 

Emergency 

The disparate conditions highlight the critical role of adequate precipitation in determining agricultural success across different Russian territories.

A state of emergency has been declared in 19 of Rostov’s 43 districts due to dry weather.

In Krasnodar, eight of the 34 districts, predominantly in the northern areas, have implemented similar measures. Farmers can now claim insurance payments and receive compensation for their losses due to the state of emergency.

SovEcon said:

Eventually, we expect some improvement in yields as harvesting moves to stronger fields.

In the southern regions, the wheat crop is estimated by SovEcon to be 31.5 million metric tons. 

The crop in the south represents a decrease from the previous year’s 32.6 million metric tons, with the reduced outlook attributed to unfavorable weather conditions already factored into the forecast.

Slight rise in Russia output

Additionally, SovEcon forecasts a slight increase in Russia’s wheat production for 2025, reaching 83.0 million metric tons, a marginal rise from the 82.4 million metric tons recorded in the previous year. 

This projection aligns with the broader outlook from the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, which recently reiterated its optimistic forecast for overall grain production. 

The Ministry anticipates a total grain harvest of 135 million metric tons, with wheat specifically contributing 90 million metric tons to that figure. 

This indicates a confidence in continued strong agricultural output within Russia, suggesting stable or potentially growing supplies in the global wheat market.

Andrey Sizov, managing director at SovEcon:

Overall, the results are in line with our expectations, though they may prompt some market participants to revise their views on a ‘very good wheat crop in Russia’.

The post SovEcon sees weaker early grain yields in southern Russia, but Stavropol offers hope appeared first on Invezz