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Highlights
- Growing Risks for Bitcoin On-chain data shows a 22% chance of Bitcoin dropping to $75,000 by March.
- Trade War Impact Rising tariffs from the U.S. could fuel inflation, which may negatively impact Bitcoin’s price.
- Key Technical Indicators Bitcoin’s price movements are showing signs of bearish trends, with critical levels to watch for potential drops.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price recently plummeted to $91,180, reflecting a 10% decline in just 24 hours. The sudden drop has raised concerns that further declines may be on the horizon, with some analysts predicting that Bitcoin could fall to $75,000 by March 28, 2025. Data from Derive.xyz’s on-chain options market shows that there is a 22% chance of such a drop, sparking widespread speculation about the cryptocurrency’s near-term future.
The main factor contributing to the increasing likelihood of a Bitcoin price drop is the escalating trade war between the U.S. and several of its key trading partners. Recently, the U.S. imposed new tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada. These tariffs, including a 25% tax on imports from Mexico and Canada, as well as a 10% tax on Chinese goods, are expected to drive inflation higher. As inflation rises, central banks may struggle to lower interest rates, further pressuring the economy and, by extension, Bitcoin’s value.
The rationale behind the tariffs, as stated by former U.S. President Donald Trump, is to protect national security against issues such as illegal immigration and drug trafficking. However, this move has sparked retaliatory actions. Canada announced its own 25% tariffs on U.S. goods, and China has threatened to take legal action against the U.S. at the World Trade Organization. These international responses add to the uncertainty surrounding global economic stability and the future of digital assets like Bitcoin.
Several prominent figures have already warned of the risks facing Bitcoin due to these geopolitical tensions. Robert Kiyosaki, a well-known financial educator, previously predicted a significant Bitcoin drop, linking the potential crash to Trump’s tariffs. At the time, Bitcoin was trading around $101,000. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes also forecasted a potential decline to $75,000 before Bitcoin could see a major recovery. Currently, Bitcoin appears to be following a "double top reversal" pattern, which could signal a further price drop toward the $75,000 mark.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is showing troubling signs of a bearish trend. Key indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), have dropped below 50, suggesting a strong bearish momentum. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has triggered a bearish crossover, further pointing to the possibility of continued downward movement in the near term.
Despite these bearish signals, Bitcoin must maintain certain price levels to avoid a deeper drop. If Bitcoin fails to hold above $90,500, the next support level could be around $85,000. On the other hand, resistance lies near the $95,000 mark, and a recovery above $96,500 could signal a shift back toward bullish momentum. As the global economic landscape remains volatile, Bitcoin’s price trajectory will continue to be influenced by both macroeconomic factors and market sentiment.
