AUS
NZ
UK
CA
USA
IND
Highlights:
The Australian share market is poised for a cautious open, with ASX 200 futures inching up 8 points (+0.09%) as of 8:30 am AEST, signaling investor hesitation amid global macroeconomic and corporate shifts. Overnight, US markets witnessed turbulent action but eventually closed broadly higher, despite a slew of mixed signals ranging from interest rate announcements to significant tech stock selloffs.
Overnight Market Developments
Major US indices managed to finish near session highs, defying a choppy session dominated by geopolitical and monetary developments. The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25–4.50% for the third consecutive meeting, in line with expectations. The decision came amid the Fed’s acknowledgment of fluctuations in net exports while maintaining that the US economy continues to grow at a solid pace.
Equity flows revealed caution among US investors, who pulled US$8.9 billion out of domestic equities and reallocated US$7.8 billion into foreign markets. Market sentiment remained tethered to speculation around upcoming US-China trade talks, with Bessent and Greer reportedly meeting China Vice Premier He Lifeng in Switzerland. However, optimism was tempered by suggestions that the discussions may not yield significant progress.
Alphabet’s $150 Billion Slide Amid AI Threats
A major source of drag on the Nasdaq was Alphabet Inc., whose shares plummeted by 7.5%, translating to a market cap decline of nearly US$150 billion. The selloff followed revelations that Google search volumes in Apple’s Safari browser declined in April—fueling speculation that AI tools like ChatGPT may be eating into traditional search engine traffic.
This marked one of Alphabet’s steepest one-day drops in recent years, triggering broader concerns about potential disruption in digital advertising revenue streams and the search engine dominance that underpins the company’s growth.
Tech and Auto Earnings in Focus
Earnings updates painted a varied picture for US tech giants. Super Micro Computer issued underwhelming Q4 revenue guidance amid order delays, while AMD flagged a US$1.5 billion hit from export restrictions despite issuing Q2 revenue guidance above consensus.
In the auto sector, Tesla reported its seventh consecutive monthly shipment decline in China, slipping 6% in April. Meanwhile, competitor BYD posted sales gains, further highlighting shifting competitive dynamics in the world's largest EV market.
BMW reaffirmed its 2025 outlook despite missing sales targets and Uber shares fell following softer-than-expected gross bookings, attributed to lower inbound US travel and a stronger US dollar. Novo Nordisk beat profit expectations but missed on revenue, trimming its guidance amid intensifying GLP-1 competition.
Tariff Talks and Trade Policies
The White House is preparing to rescind Biden-era AI chip export restrictions and rewrite policies to bolster overseas chip controls. A new probe into Trump-era copper tariffs is reportedly underway, and discussions are advancing with the UK on reducing tariffs for British steel and automotive exports.
Bessent indicated that a US-China trade deal could be announced as early as this week, adding fuel to investor speculation. Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China cut its seven-day reverse repo rate to 1.4% and lowered the reserve requirement ratio to spur economic growth.
Global Economic Snapshot
In Europe, German factory orders climbed 3.6% in March—well ahead of the 1.3% forecast—indicating a broad-based industrial rebound. Over in the Pacific, New Zealand’s unemployment rate held steady at 5.1% for Q1, defying expectations of a modest rise to 5.3%.
ASX Earnings Spotlight
Several ASX-listed companies reported earnings and trading updates, adding local color to today’s market narrative:
-
Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ASX:ANZ) posted 1H25 cash NPAT of $3.56 billion, aligned with consensus forecasts. However, the net interest margin of 1.56% fell short of the 1.58% estimate, potentially dampening sentiment.
-
Orica Limited (ASX:ORI) reported 1H25 NPAT of $250.8 million, exceeding consensus of $227.2 million. The interim dividend was lifted to 25 cents per share compared to 19 cents a year ago. Full-year guidance was reaffirmed.
-
Light & Wonder (ASX:LNW) posted Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $311 million, in-line with expectations, while cautioning about potential tariff challenges. The company reiterated its full-year EBITDA guidance of $1.4 billion.
-
Super Retail Group (ASX:SUL) offered a trading update covering weeks 27–44, revealing a 3.3% year-on-year lift in like-for-like sales. However, year-to-date margins trailed the prior corresponding period, in line with H1 trends. The company flagged continued margin pressure, especially for Rebel, Macpac, and Supercheap Auto.
Today’s Key Focus Areas
-
Zip Co Ltd (ASX:ZIP) could see momentum today following strong Q1 results from Sezzle, which reported EPS of $1.00 and upgraded its full-year EPS guidance. Sezzle shares surged 32% after hours, potentially providing a positive read-across for Zip.
-
ANZ’s slightly weaker-than-expected NIM and CET1 ratio may exert modest pressure in today’s trade, despite its otherwise broadly in-line result.
-
Super Retail Group’s margin softness and sluggish sales at key brands may weigh on sentiment, even as topline sales continue to grow.
The ASX 200 is set for a subdued open, reflecting investor caution as global markets digest a mix of central bank decisions, trade policy shifts, and sharp earnings surprises. While the US Federal Reserve’s rate pause offered some clarity, volatility in key tech stocks and evolving US-China relations continue to cloud the outlook. Earnings from major ASX players including ANZ (ASX:ANZ), Orica (ASX:ORI), Light & Wonder (ASX:LNW), and Super Retail (ASX:SUL) will be central to setting today’s domestic tone.
