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Highlights
- Shorter wait times for the iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max raise concerns about consumer demand, with improved availability over the previous lineup.
- It’s unusual for high-end model wait times to decrease post-launch, and the absence of Apple's AI feature may dampen demand.
- iPhone sales and revenue projections for the September quarter meet expectations, but risks for December growth remain if demand doesn’t improve.
Recent reports indicate that wait times for Apple Inc.'s new iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max models are decreasing, a trend that has raised concerns among analysts at UBS regarding consumer demand. The current wait times for these new models are significantly shorter compared to those for the iPhone 15 lineup released the previous year, even when accounting for supply chain disruptions in 2023.
In the United States, the wait time for the iPhone 16 Pro Max is currently 24 days, while the wait for the iPhone 15 Pro Max was 42 days. Similarly, the wait for the iPhone 16 Pro is now 19 days, compared to 30 days for the iPhone 15 Pro. Experts noted that these wait times serve as a proxy for shifts in demand within the technology sector, indicating that high-end devices are becoming more readily available than at any point since the launch of the first 5G-enabled iPhone in 2020.
Notably, during previous product launches, wait times for the Pro Max models typically increased post-launch, contrasting with the ongoing decline in wait times for the iPhone 16 Pro Max.
In China, the situation mirrors that of the US, with the wait for the iPhone 16 Max at 18 days, down from 39 days for the iPhone 15 Pro Max, and 9 days for the iPhone 16 Plus, down from 11 days for the iPhone 15 Plus.
Analysts have pointed out that, at this stage in the launch cycle, it is unusual for wait times for high-end models to remain stable or decrease, as demand tends to be steady. The absence of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL)’s AI feature, Apple Intelligence, is viewed as a potential factor contributing to the current demand situation. The stable launch of this AI capability is not anticipated until mid-October, coinciding with the rollout of iOS 18.1.
Furthermore, it is noted that iOS 18.1 may not include several anticipated features, such as Genmoji, Image Playground, or ChatGPT integration. As a result, demand for the new iPhone models may remain subdued until the expected launch of iOS 18.2 in early November.
Given these insights, analysts project that there will be no significant upside for iPhone sales in the September quarter. Current assessments suggest an outcome in line with expectations in terms of unit sales and revenue. A forecast of 51 million iPhone units is noted, slightly below the consensus, representing an increase from 49 million units in the same quarter the previous year.
With a more favorable mix anticipated for the Pro and Pro Max models, projections indicate iPhone revenue may reach a higher level, marking a year-over-year increase in line with consensus estimates. However, if demand does not improve, the anticipated growth in iPhone revenue for the December quarter could be at risk.
In light of these developments, analysts have maintained a neutral rating for Apple, setting a price target based on market dynamics, while shares traded at a lower level in early afternoon trading on Wednesday.
