AUS
NZ
UK
CA
USA
IND
GSK PLC (OTC:GLAXF) has been noted by broker Berenberg, which highlights a potential easing of challenges that have impacted the pharmaceutical group throughout the summer. A major factor has been the Zantac litigation in Delaware, alongside concerns related to changes in U.S. recommendations for Arexvy. Despite these issues, GSK has demonstrated solid sales growth, projected at around 4% annually through to 2030. However, GSK is trading within the largest "regeneration gap" in its sector, according to Berenberg.
GSK’s research and development focus since 2016 has centered on HIV treatments (such as Dovato and Cabenuva) and vaccines (including Shingrix and Arexvy), both of which have continued to receive updates. The late-stage pipeline is currently focused on respiratory conditions, anti-infectives, and oncology, with key developments expected in these areas.
In 2024, the pipeline is anticipated to show returns led by treatments like Blenrep, aimed at multiple myeloma, and depemokimab, which targets severe asthma. These could outperform the non-obesity peer group average and exceed the cost of capital. GSK is also advancing its HIV pipeline, with long-acting dosing formulations of Apretude for prevention and Cabenuva for treatment moving into Phase 3 trials.
While consensus forecasts suggest a decline in HIV sales from 2028, Berenberg emphasizes that GSK’s position in the injectable treatment segment may continue to provide an advantage. Additional pipeline developments include depemokimab for nasal polyps, and Arexvy entering its third winter season. Regulatory filings for Nucala in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and depemokimab in asthma are also on the horizon.
Finally, Berenberg assesses that the Zantac litigation risks are already accounted for, with the broker’s target price reflecting the possibility of settlements. The outlook suggests that GSK may be poised for continued progress across its key therapeutic areas.
