Why the UK Administration Needs to Do More to Fight Coronavirus?

Covid-19 has gripped the whole world and is having a huge impact on lives of people, most of who have been forced into isolation from others and has become the biggest ever factor to the looming global economic slowdown. The reason behind this is that people around the world have been advised not to leave their homes, which means businesses are suffering without staff and employees being present at work, while their costs for the period are mounting up.

As a part of relief packages, certain governments have stimulus measures through their monetary policy, so that these companies can keep their day to day operations in check, while financial institutions around the world are offering loans and support in other forms to small and medium enterprises and business, especially in the UK, so that the companies do not shut down, which could have a further adverse impact on the economy. It has already been reported that the global economic impact of the pandemic could reach multi-trillion dollars over the entire estimated period till the disease is contained.

The latest Covid-19 numbers from across the world are staggering. As, the total number of confirmed cases across the world have crossed 353,000, while over 15,300 people have died due to the spread of the deadly virus. China is still at the top in terms of the number of confirmed cases at 81,093, but the country has now crossed stage 5, which means, the curve has been flattened and there are no new cases of the virus from within the country. On a day to day basis, just 19 new cases were reported as on March 23, while almost 72,703 people have reportedly fully recovered, which basically means that the country is now out of the primary threat of a further increase in new cases. This was possible because of the stringent lockdown measures being adopted by the Chinese Government.

The current centre of the pandemic is Europe, and especially Italy and Spain. In Italy, 59,138 confirmed cases had been reported, while 5,476 deaths have been confirmed. The deceased number for Italy is even higher than China’s death numbers caused by Covid-19. Spain is another country which has been severely impacted and is on total lockdown, with 4,321 new cases reported in a single day itself, meaning the bell curve is still showing no signs of flattening.

In the United Kingdom, the total number of confirmed cases, at the time of rising stand at 5,683 and around 281 people have reportedly died because of the disease in the country. A total of 135 people have been confirmed to have fully recovered while 20, as of now, are still critical.

The sudden rise in numbers for country’s like the United Kingdom and the United States of America is no surprise, as such a high number was only recognised as and when the countries changed their testing methods and increased the number of tests, which allowed them to understand the community spreading phenomena.

A view of the Coronavirus Pandemic spread across countries

Source: Google My Maps (Data)

Note: As of the time of writing, 173 recognised countries in total have had confirmed cases of Covid-19 within their borders

How the UK’s original plan to fight the coronavirus would have risked hundreds of thousands of lives?

The Imperial College Covid-19 response team, on 16^th March 2020, published a research report, which highlighted the UK governmen t’s previous inadequate efforts to curb the spreading of Covid-19, mentioning that if the Government hadn’t recognised its mistakes previously, and wouldn’t have put non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in place, it would have resulted in a major catastrophe, and the number of deaths from the disease, over its extended life, could have reached hundreds of thousands. On the basis of a statistical epidemiological model, and taking samples of previous transmission based epidemics, such as influenza in 1918 and other respiratory system affecting viruses, and using the current case scenarios of two countries, the United Kingdom as well as the United States of America, the research team presented the impacts of current measures of intervention, as well as the possible strategies, that could lead to the lowest transmission levels.

The research team was able to establish two primary strategies – mitigation and suppression and presented three case scenarios, which included a “do nothing” scenario, a “mitigation vs suppression scenario as well as a “cycle of multiple suppressions” scenario to establish the best and worst cases for the least number of transmissions over a long period of time, including, even if the infections were to rise again if no vaccination could be made available.

The report states that in this worst-case scenario, which is the “do nothing” case, no NPI’s would be made on the part of the government, and nothing would be done to influence or alter the behaviour of the citizens or to warn them against all the adversities of the virus. This was a model that has been previously used by the two governments of the UK and the USA. Based on each person infecting another 2.4 people (the potential reproduction number that has been reported by the health officials and the WHO), it has been estimated that around 81 per cent of the populations of both countries would come into the contact of the virus, which would have resulted in approximately 510,000 deaths in the United Kingdom while around 2.2 million deaths in the United States of America. It has been reported that the Peak of daily deaths will likely be higher in the UK because of the proportion of the old population in the country.

To identify the best-case scenario to lower the number of deaths in both the countries, the report came up with two primary strategies of NPIs, which have been reported to be

• Mitigation: Which involves curbing down the speed of the transmissions, and not completely eliminating the epidemic spread, which would lead to a reduction in the demand for advanced medical care, as well as also protecting the older people and infants who are at the highest risk from this disease
• Suppression: This strategy would involve reversing of any growth in the spread of the transmissions, leading to a lower number of daily cases to be reported, and could also lead to a longer-term curbing of the spread of the disease, if executed properly.

Both strategies require rule and law based changes, as well as psychological and behavioural changes on the part of the citizens of the country, who need to avoid any essential travel, and socially distance themselves or put themselves into isolation for as long as it is required. The report from the Imperial College Covid-19 response team has also highlighted that mitigation measures such as home isolation of the people that show certain mild or heavy symptoms and others in the UK based homes, as well as the social distancing of the elderly and vulnerable, will have a significant impact, as the number of peak deaths could be slashed to half, while the demand for peak healthcare could also be reduced to a two third level.

What advisories have already been issued by the government?

The government of the United Kingdom, in a bid to fight the outbreak of covid-19, have currently issued the following advisories for the citizens in general:

• Everyone should avoid gatherings at crowded places, such as pubs, clubs and theatres
• Everyone should work from home if they can
• All "unnecessary" visits to friends and relatives in care homes should cease
• People should only use the NHS "where we really need to" - and can reduce the burden on workers by getting advice on the NHS website where possible
• By next weekend, those with the most serious health conditions must be "largely shielded from social contact for around 12 weeks."
• The UK is now "three weeks" behind Italy - the worst-hit country in Europe
• If one person in any household has a persistent cough or fever, everyone living there must stay at home for 14 days
• Those people should, if possible, avoid leaving the house "even to buy food or essentials" - but they may leave the house "for exercise and, in that case, at a safe distance from others"
• Schools will not be closed for the moment.

A large number of experts have come out and suggested that the government of the UK will have to do a lot more than it has done, to completely suppress and future transmission of the disease. Steps like a complete lockdown of the country, and force locking people into their homes will have to be taken by the government to completely flatten the bell curve, and to make sure that the cases of transmissions do not re-emerge in the country.