Orora (ASX: ORA) downgrades its FY24 earnings forecast, share price drops by over 12%

2 min read | April 01, 2024 07:22 PM PDT | By Team Kalkine Media

The Orora Ltd (ASX: ORA) stock is facing a challenging start to the week, plummeting by 12.87% to reach a 52-week low of AU$2.28 in morning trade on the ASX 200.

The drastic decline in the ASX 200 stock's value is attributed to investors hastily selling off their holdings following a trading update released by the packaging giant.

Trading update

The trading update unveiled that Orora has encountered difficult trading conditions, prompting a downward revision of its earnings forecast for FY 2024 after reviewing business unit forecasts for the second half.

At a group level, excluding the earnings contribution from the Saverglass acquisition for the seven months in FY 2024, Orora anticipates a slight decrease in earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) compared to FY 2023. This contradicts its previous expectation of higher EBIT for FY 2024.

The revised FY 2024 group EBIT forecast, excluding Saverglass, ranges between AU$307 million and AU$317 million, falling short of the AU$320.5 million achieved in FY 2023.

The management points to its North America business as the primary cause of the disappointing performance. The Orora Packaging Solutions (OPS) business, particularly within Distribution, has experienced volume softness and the negative impact of price deflation on customers during the March quarter.

Additionally, a decline in average daily sales in the February to March trading period indicates a lack of normal seasonal uplift in June quarter daily sales, further contributing to the subdued outlook for the second half. Consequently, second half revenue is projected to decrease by approximately 3% compared to the first half, with FY 2024 EBIT forecasted to range between US$102 million and US$107 million, down from US$112.6 million in FY 2023.

Furthermore, disappointing performance from the Saverglass business adds to investor concerns. Weak trading results in February and March confirm a lack of improvement in forward customer demand, leading to a reduction in forecast sales tonnage in the second half by approximately 11% compared to the prior corresponding period.

As a result, forecasted Saverglass EBITDA for FY 2024 has been downgraded to 88 million euros from the previously projected range of approximately 98 million euros to 84 million euros.

The downward revision in earnings forecasts and challenging trading conditions for both the North America business and Saverglass business have dampened investor sentiment, resulting in a significant decline in the Orora share price.


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