Caloric reset driven by GLP-1 drugs could cut food volumes by over 10%

June 22, 2025 01:30 AM PDT | By EODHD

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Caloric reset driven by GLP-1 drugs could cut food volumes by over 10% — Image source: Kalkine Media

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Investing.com -- A long-term shift in U.S. calorie consumption, spurred by rising use of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, could reduce packaged food and beverage volumes by more than 10%, Bank of America said. Analysts said the widespread adoption of GLP-1 therapies, such as Ozempic and Wegovy, is driving a “caloric reset” that suppresses appetite and reduces consumer preference for salty, sweet and high-fat foods. That shift poses a structural risk to processed and convenience food makers, particularly in categories like confectionery, bakery and flavored beverages. “We believe it could drive -30-40% caloric reduction for obese persons and cumulative LT volume declines of more than -10% for Food & Beverage, with the largest impacts on center store snacking, convenient, and indulgent occasions,” BofA wrote.

While only 2–3% of U.S. adults currently use GLP-1s, the bank expects adoption could reach high single digits in five years, with long-term potential near 35%, comparable to statin use, given rising prescriptions, future oral versions, and broader insurance coverage. Volume losses would likely be gradual, about 1–2% annually, but could accelerate as drug use scales, the note said. Categories with the highest exposure include Hershey, Mondelez (NASDAQ:MDLZ), Smucker, and Hostess-parent Flowers Foods (NYSE:FLO), due to their sugar and fat content. Keurig Dr Pepper (NASDAQ:KDP) was cited for its exposure in beverages.

In contrast, companies with higher fiber or protein content in their portfolios, such as Conagra and General Mills (NYSE:GIS), are better positioned, while others may be forced to reformulate products or pivot through acquisitions. The note flagged that adapting to changing dietary trends could be costly, especially as GLP-1 users seek more nutrient-dense, satiating foods. Manufacturers may face growing pressure to reshape portfolios faster than current bolt-on M&A strategies suggest, according to the analysts.

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