USD/ZAR forecast: here’s why South African rand just slumped

April 02, 2025 09:02 PM PDT | By Invezz

USD/ZAR forecast: here’s why South African rand just slumped — Image source: Invezz

US and South African trade concerns

Donald Trump announced that the US will impose huge tariffs on imported goods from South Africa when he delivered his closely-watched Liberation Day speech,

Trump noted that South Africa charges a 60% tariff on South African goods. As a result, the US will impose a universal 30% tariff on goods coming from the country.

These tariffs will have a big impact on trade flows between the two countries since South Africa is bound to respond.

Data shows that the trade volume between South Africa and the US totaled about $20.5 billion in 2024. The US exported goods worth over $5.8 billion, while South Africa sold products worth $14.7 billion. This means that the US had a trade deficit of about $9 billion.

The top South African exports to the US are platinum, cars, and other precious metals. In this case, the country will continue shipping its platinum and other precious metals to the US because of its big role in the industry. It is hard to replace the country’s platinum.

The products that could be impacted are the Mercedes-Benz C-Class, which is assembled in East London, and BMW X3, which is made in Pretoria. There is a risk that the auto sector will be impacted as the vehicles become unaffordable once a 25% tariff is added.

US and South Africa tensions have risen

The new tariffs add on the tensions that have been going on since Trump became president. His administration has accused South Africa of targeting white people because of a land bill that the parliament passed.

This bill will enable the government to take over underutilized land and pay a fair market price. It was a better bill than most activists advocated, which called for taking the land without payments.

Trump has also slashed some funding to South Africa when it cut the USAID budget. That move halted about $440 million in aid allocated in 2023 and another $439 million allocated this year.

Therefore, the USD/ZAR pair has soared as analysts expect that the South African Central Bank will slash interest rates further even as inflation rises. The most recent data showed that the country’s inflation jumped to 3.2% from a low of 2.4% last year.

USD/ZAR technical analysis

USDZAR chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the USD/ZAR pair surged, as we predicted in this article. It moved to a high of 18.97, its highest level since February 3rd. This rebound happened after the pair formed a falling wedge pattern, a popular bullish continuation sign. This pennant came after the pair surged, meaning that it was part of a bullish pennant pattern.

The USD to ZAR exchange rate has remained above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicators have all pointed upwards.

Therefore, the pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the next key resistance level at 19.21, its highest point this year.

The post USD/ZAR forecast: here’s why South African rand just slumped appeared first on Invezz

Disclaimer

The content, including but not limited to any articles, news, quotes, information, data, text, reports, ratings, opinions, images, photos, graphics, graphs, charts, animations, and video (Content) is a service of Kalkine Media LLC., having Delaware File No. 4697309 (“Kalkine Media, we or us”) and is available for personal and non-commercial use only. The principal purpose of the Content is to educate and inform. The Content does not contain or imply any recommendation or opinion intended to influence your financial decisions and must not be relied upon by you as such. Some of the Content on this website may be sponsored/non-sponsored, as applicable, but is NOT a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell or hold the stocks of the company(s) or engage in any investment activity under discussion. Kalkine Media is neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice through this platform. Users should make their own enquiries about any investments and Kalkine Media strongly suggests the users to seek advice from a financial adviser, stockbroker or other professional (including taxation and legal advice), as necessary. Kalkine Media hereby disclaims any and all the liabilities to any user for any direct, indirect, implied, punitive, special, incidental or other consequential damages arising from any use of the Content on this website, which is provided without warranties. The views expressed in the Content by the guests, if any, are their own and do not necessarily represent the views or opinions of Kalkine Media.
The content published on Kalkine Media also includes feeds sourced from third-party providers. Kalkine does not assert any ownership rights over the content provided by these third-party sources. The inclusion of such feeds on the Website is for informational purposes only. Kalkine does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the content obtained from third-party feeds. Furthermore, Kalkine Media shall not be held liable for any errors, omissions, or inaccuracies in the content obtained from third-party feeds, nor for any damages or losses arising from the use of such content. Some of the images/music that may be used on this website are copyrighted to their respective owner(s). Kalkine Media does not claim ownership of any of the pictures/music displayed/used on this website unless stated otherwise. The images/music that may be used on this website are taken from various sources on the internet, including paid subscriptions or are believed to be in public domain. We have used reasonable efforts to accredit the source (public domain/CC0 status) to where it was found and indicated it, as necessary.
This disclaimer is subject to change without notice. Users are advised to review this disclaimer periodically for any updates or modifications.