Slowing UK jobs, wages point to possible Bank of England August rate cut, says ING

UK’s job market is cooling rapidly, with wage growth also decelerating.

This trend, while not likely to trigger immediate rate cuts by the Bank of England, strengthens the case for reductions in August and November, according to ING Group.

Significant deterioration is evident in the UK employment landscape.  

UK job market slowdown

The latest statistics reveal a concerning decline: a notable 109,000 decrease in payrolled workers during May.  

Strikingly, this represents the most substantial monthly drop, excluding the pandemic period, since these records began in 2014.

“However, there’s a fairly significant caveat, which is that this data has a habit of being revised up later on,” James Smith, economist, UK, at ING Group, said in a report. 

Previously in March, an initial report showed a decrease of 78,000, which was subsequently adjusted to a 35,000 reduction.

It’s necessary to withhold a complete assessment until the figures are updated next month, according to Smith.

Despite this, employment figures have declined in nine of the last ten months, a stark reversal from a 44-month period of continuous growth.

Without including sectors largely controlled by the government, the numbers appear significantly more pronounced, Smith said. 

There has been a 1.2% decline in the “ex-government” employee headcount since December.

Wage growth decelerating faster than expected

“Remember, too, that this data is the most reliable way of analysing the jobs market right now, at a time when the unemployment rate and associated labour force survey are plagued by sampling issues.,” Smith added. 

The jury’s out on whether this marks the start of a more serious deterioration in hiring conditions.

Accelerated job losses are a cause for economic concern, typically signaling a potential recession. 

“We are sceptical that this is where we are right now, though famously the jobs market is a lagging indicator of economic strength,” Smith said. 

Although job openings have dropped significantly below pre-pandemic levels and are declining at an accelerated rate, other indicators paint a less concerning picture. 

Notably, even with the increased national insurance payments for employers in April, government-submitted redundancy notifications have remained unchanged.

Future policy outlook

“But if nothing else, this should help cement another rate cut in August and further quarterly cuts in November and into 2026,” Smith noted. 

We wouldn’t totally rule out the Bank of England moving faster, particularly because we are more upbeat about the inflation outlook.

Current discussions indicate that accelerating progress faces significant obstacles.

Despite a notable slowdown in hiring over the last two years, authorities often highlight persistently high wage growth as a key concern.

However, this narrative is changing, according to ING. 

Private sector wage growth has decelerated more rapidly than anticipated, dropping to 5.1% from 5.9% over the past two months.

While base effects account for a significant portion of this decrease, underlying signs suggest a genuine cooling trend in wage growth.

Firms surveyed in the most recent BoE Decision Maker Panel anticipate wage growth will decrease to 3.5% in the near future.

Smith added:

While we’d be skeptical about it going that far in the official data, not least because of the recent near-7% rise in the National Living Wage, we do think the latest fall in wage growth should continue through this year.

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