Is $50 oil on the horizon? JPMorgan warns of further price drops amid supply pressure

The outlook for oil prices is becoming increasingly bearish on Wall Street, with a growing consensus that crude will trade primarily in the $60s range in the coming months.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has joined a chorus of fellow banks in lowering their oil price forecasts, citing concerns about slowing US economic growth and the potential impact of President Trump’s trade policies.

Goldman joins the chorus

After initially maintaining its previous price projections when OPEC+ confirmed plans to increase oil production earlier this month, Goldman Sachs ultimately revised its outlook in response to mounting pressure on the US economy.

In a research note, the bank lowered its expected range for Brent crude to 65—80 a barrel, down from its previous forecast of 70—80.

“We expect Brent to stay above $70 a barrel in coming months,” head of commodities research Daan Struyven wrote, but “we no longer see $70 as the price floor,” signaling a significant shift in sentiment. Brent futures are currently hovering around $71.

Wall Street turns bearish

Goldman’s revision follows similar downgrades in recent weeks by Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp., both of which now anticipate Brent crude to trade in the high $60s during the second half of the year.

Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. have long held a more cautious view, predicting that prices would end the year in the mid- or low-$60s. Beyond Wall Street, prominent oil trading houses such as Vitol Group and Gunvor Group, traditionally bullish on crude, have also turned more pessimistic in their outlook.

This retreat in oil prices has been welcomed by US President Donald Trump and offers a measure of relief for consumers and central banks grappling with years of rampant inflation.

However, it also poses significant financial risks for producers in the American shale oil industry and for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia, potentially squeezing their profits and straining budgets.

The bear case: $50 oil on the horizon?

Citigroup remains the most bearish among the major financial institutions, projecting that crude will average $60 a barrel in the second and third quarters before sinking further to $55 in the fourth.

Looking ahead to next year, Wall Street’s preliminary assessments suggest little potential for upside.

JPMorgan is anticipating that crude will average $61 a barrel and may even touch $50 as Trump pushes to keep sanctioned Russian and Iranian barrels in the market, increasing global supply and further depressing prices.

This projection signals a potentially challenging environment for oil producers in the coming years.

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