India boosts Russian oil imports in March; Venezuelan barrels likely to be replaced easily

India’s oil imports from Russia increased on a month-on-month basis in March, even as the threat of the US imposing sanctions on buyers of Russian crude loomed large.

India’s crude oil imports are estimated at around 1.6 million barrels per day for both March and April, slightly below the 1.63 million barrels per day average during the same period last year, Emma Li, Vortexa’s senior market analyst, told Invezz.

According to Vortexa’s data, India imported around 1.57 million barrels per day of crude oil from Russia during March, which translates to about an 11% increase. 

In February, the country had imported 1.42 million barrels per day of oil from Russia. 

Oil imports from Russia have stabilised after falling over the last few months.

In December 2024, Russian crude oil imports slipped to a 17-month low, while imports were subdued in the next couple of months as well compared with previous figures.

In January, the US sanctioned several tankers and insurers in the Russian shadow fleet, which were responsible for transporting oil to other countries, evading Western sanctions. 

Initially, there was a shortage in Russian supply as countries such as India and China increased purchases from the Middle East and West Africa. 

However, recent data have suggested Russia has managed to mostly sideline these new sanctions imposed by the previous US President Joe Biden’s administration. 

India’s March imports

Exports from Russia have remained robust, and imports by India have started to pick up once again. 

Russia and traders discovered methods to bypass US sanctions for delivering shipments to Indian ports. 

In March, Russia remained the largest supplier of crude oil to India. The position has been held by Moscow since the war broke out in Ukraine in February of 2022.

Among other countries, India’s imports from Nigeria soared by 179% on-month in March to 207,259.68 barrels per day, Vortexa’s data showed. 

Similarly, imports from the US also increased by more than 66% to 243,917.26 barrels per day last month, according to the data.

Iraq, the second largest crude supplier to India shipped 818,040.39 barrels per day in March, down 20% from the previous month. 

Similarly, Saudi Arabia’s imports to India fell to 626,452.94 barrels per day last month from 754,103.57 barrels a day in February, the data showed. 

Shipments from the United Arab Emirates fell slightly to 408,102.59 barrels a day in March. 

Russia crude oil sanctions

Last week, Trump threatened to impose 25%-50% tariffs on countries purchasing Russian crude oil.

China and India are the largest buyers of Russian oil—accounting for 80% of its exports—and their response remains uncertain. 

Janiv Shah, Rystad Energy’s oil VP Commodity Markets, said:

Should the tariff pressures prove successful for Trump and enable a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, there is a scenario where these punitive measures could be short-lived, with tariffs potentially bullish for crude oil and bearish for products.

Meanwhile, Vortexa’s Li told Invezz that if Russian sanctions were to be enforced, India’s oil imports from Russia could fall back to pre-2022 levels. 

However, Li said that there was a “big question mark” on whether the US would take such a drastic step.

Venezuela oil imports

India has stopped importing crude oil from Venezuela after Trump imposed a 25% tariff on countries buying oil and gas from the South American country, according to several media reports.

India had imported just 62,831.74 barrels per day of crude oil from Venezuela in March compared with 66,073.11 barrels a day in February, Vortexa data showed. 

“This small amount can be easily replaced,” said Li. 

Li added:

Given that Venezuelan crude grades are very heavy, the equivalent replacement will be heavy crude from North/Latin America (Canadian or Mexican) or Middle Eastern (Iraqi Basrah heavy).

“Given the scale of Russian volumes, far surpassing those from Iran or Venezuela, any action from either country could have a significantly stronger bullish impact on the market,” Rystad’s Shah said.

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