ASX 200 Set to Surge as US Markets Rebound on Trade Optimism

Highlights 

• ASX 200 futures rise over 1.2% following a broad-based US market rebound 
• Global sentiment boosted by signs of progress in trade negotiations with Japan and India 
• Gold stocks ease, while growth-oriented sectors and tech ETFs post solid gains 

The ASX 200 futures point to a notable uplift, with gains of 100 points (+1.27%) as of 8:30 am AEST, in sync with a broad rally across major US benchmarks. The overnight session witnessed a rebound across Wall Street indices as investor sentiment improved, bolstered by signs of stabilising bond yields and optimism surrounding potential trade agreements with key Asian partners. 

US equities recovered much of the prior day’s losses, which were intensified by thin trading volumes due to the long Easter weekend. The S&P 500, having slumped 2.36% on Monday with more than 90% of its constituents in the red, ended Tuesday near session highs. The bounce lacked a single dominant catalyst, but several macro factors converged to fuel risk-on sentiment. These included potential trade breakthroughs with Japan and India, a moderating yield curve, and a stabilisation of the US dollar following a multi-week streak of bearish positions. 

Market dynamics remained complex. A recent analysis shows nearly US$5 trillion in value has been wiped from the S&P 500 since April's tariff announcements, contributing to a historic drawdown that threatens to mark April as one of the worst-performing months for the Dow Jones Industrial Average since the Great Depression. The dollar index hovered near three-year lows, while gold has notched over 20 new highs this year amid economic uncertainty and stagflation concerns. 

Investors continued to rotate into risk assets, pulling capital from bond funds for the fifth consecutive week. This aligns with broader concerns around US tariffs and economic stagnation. Simultaneously, Chinese investors appear to be rallying behind domestic equities, with coordinated support from both the state and private capital sources. 

On the corporate front, 3M Co (NYSE:MMM) exceeded expectations for both revenue and earnings in the first quarter and maintained its full-year forecast despite acknowledging a tariff-related cost impact. RTX Corporation (NYSE:RTX) flagged a potential US$850 million hit from tariffs. Pharmaceutical developments were also active, with Roche announcing a €47 billion investment in the US, and Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO) experiencing stock pressure due to competition from Eli Lilly's upcoming weight-loss pill. 

In the technology and AI domain, Anthropic forecasts that virtual AI employees may begin managing corporate networks within the next year, reflecting the accelerating pace of digital transformation. 

Central banks also featured in the market discourse. Neel Kashkari reaffirmed the US Federal Reserve's commitment to independence as essential for economic stability, while the Bank of England’s Megan Greene highlighted that future quantitative easing could be more precise and less broad-based. Greene also noted the downward pressure US tariffs may exert on UK inflation rates. Meanwhile, political pressure on the US central bank continues to build, with recent rhetoric from the US administration indicating an inclination to attribute future economic downturns to central bank actions. 

The global tariff narrative continued to evolve. The US Treasury flagged the ongoing standoff with China as unsustainable and hinted at de-escalation. At the same time, preliminary agreements with Japan and India signal progress, although formalisation may take months. Citi analysts now place recession probabilities at nearly 45% for the second half of 2025, citing escalating tariff impacts. In India, high-level diplomatic engagements reflect the seriousness with which trade dialogues are being pursued. 

On the economic outlook, the International Monetary Fund’s April World Economic Outlook revised the US growth forecast downward by 0.9 percentage points to 1.8% for 2025 and adjusted the 2026 projection to 1.7%, underscoring the broad macro pressures. 

Closer to home, key developments on the ASX include: 

• Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX:PDN), Aurelia Metals Ltd (ASX:AMI), and Metals X Ltd (ASX:MLX) are among the miners scheduled to release quarterly production updates. 

• De Grey Mining Ltd (ASX:DEG) will have trading suspended post-23 April after court approval of its acquisition by Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX:NST). 

• EnviroSuite Ltd (ASX:EVS) received an improved non-binding offer of $0.10 per share from Ideagen. 

• SelfWealth Ltd (ASX:SWF) shareholders overwhelmingly approved the acquisition scheme by Svava, offering $0.28 cash per share. 

• Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX:TLX) reported a 62% increase in first-quarter revenue to $186 million and reaffirmed full-year guidance of $779–800 million. 

Today’s market may witness a rebound in several growth-driven names, especially in technology and fintech. Notably, Zip Co Ltd (ASX:ZIP), which fell sharply by 9.0% in the prior session, may see reactive movement in light of the broader bounce in sectoral ETFs like fintech (+4.1%), homebuilders (+3.8%), and biotech (+2.8%). 

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA) also drew attention with a dramatic V-shaped price swing, closing 4.1% higher after an initial 0.9% decline. The stock's movement from approximately $140 to $168 has raised its price-to-earnings ratio to near 28x, spotlighting it as a stock to monitor closely in the sessions ahead. 

As equity markets digest macro volatility, ongoing trade realignments, central bank shifts, and corporate earnings, the ASX appears poised to benefit from the global risk-on mood. Key sectors likely to attract interest include fintech, biotech, and major financials, while the recent rally in gold stocks may see a temporary pullback in favour of cyclical plays.